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徐威廉 · 2020年06月02日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018103102000076 [ CFA II ]

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

问题如下：

Company M`s dividends are suspended for the first four years because of the significant growth opportunity. The management states that the company will pay the dividend of $2.5 per share during the fifth year. Thereafter, the dividend will continue to grow at 5% per year into the indefinite future. The required rate of return is 12%. What`s the intrinsic value of Company M`s stock?

选项：

A.

$20.83

B.

$35.71

C.

$22.69

解释：

C is correct.

考点：Dividend discount model

解析:

P4=D5r−g=2.512%−5%=$35.71V0=P4(1+r)4=35.711.124=$22.69P_4=\frac{D_5}{r-g}=\frac{2.5}{12\%-5\%}=\$35.71\\V_0=\frac{P_4}{\left(1+r\right)^4}=\frac{35.71}{1.12^4}=\$22.69

画图法一刀切在5时间点，TV5=37.5，再往前折现5年答案是21.2785，错哪了？
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已采纳答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年06月03日

同学你好，这道题目最简单的方法是使用V4=D5/(r-g)，其中D5=12.5，这样计算V4再往前折现四年。如果使用你的方法也是可以的，V5=D5*(1+g)/(r-g)=37.5，折现5年回去，现值等于21.2785。不过不要忘了还要将D5也折现5年，因为D5也是站在4时刻看的未来的现金流，折现后等于1.42。最后的价值等于这两个的现值相加，就是22.69。

所以建议用方法一，不容易出错。

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