图中画红线的一句话为何这样说？

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：

Overconfidence is greatest when accuracy is near chance levels, and reduces as accuracy increases from 50 percent to 80 percent. Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein (1982) gave subjects a general knowledge test and then asked them how sure they were of their answer. Subjects reported being 100 percent sure when they were actually only 70 percent to 80 percent correct.

就是一个事情有对和不对两个结果，随便猜，猜中的概率就是50%，这就是那个随机水平 chance level，当一个人自己努力去判断，最后准确率和50%这个随机水平差不多的时候，他会觉得自己特别厉害，认为都是靠自己研究出来的。但是当他判断正确率达到在某个区间的时候（50%-80%），他反倒不自信了，觉得自己可能也没有那么厉害。

 

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！