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小范范 · 2020年05月25日

问一道题:NO.PZ201720190200000307 第7小题 [ CFA II ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

7. The most appropriate response to the new committee member’s question is that:

选项:

A.

roll returns are negatively correlated with price returns.

B.

such roll returns are the result of futures markets in backwardation.

C.

such positions may outperform other positions that have positive roll returns.

解释:

C is correct.

Investment positions are evaluated on the basis of total return, and the roll return is part of the total return. Even though negative roll return negatively affects the total return, this effect could be more than offset by positive price and collateral returns. Therefore, it is possible that positions with negative roll returns outperform positions with positive roll returns, depending on the price and collateral returns.

老师,看了前一个讲解,您提到roll return和price return不是负相关关系,可是backward情况下,roll return 为正,而price 是下降的,则price return为负,这不就是负相关嘛?请老师指正,谢谢
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已采纳答案

xiaowan_品职助教 · 2020年05月25日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,

roll return和price return是不存在稳定的负相关关系的。

在backwardation的情况下,是价格的期限结构向下,而不是价格是下降的,

譬如说近月合约是12元,远月合约是10元,这就构成了backwardation的结构,

过了一段时间,近月合约15元,远月合约12元,还是backwardation,但是价格是上升的。

从数值上来说,我举的这个例子,roll return从(12-10)/12 变化到(15-12)/15,随着价格上升是变大的


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NO.PZ201720190200000307 问题如下 7. The most appropriate response to the new committee member’s question is that: A.roll returns are negatively correlatewith prireturns. B.suroll returns are the result of futures markets in backwartion. C.supositions moutperform other positions thhave positive roll returns. C is correct. Investment positions are evaluateon the basis of totreturn, anthe roll return is part of the totreturn. Even though negative roll return negatively affects the totreturn, this effecoulmore thoffset positive priancollaterreturns. Therefore, it is possible thpositions with negative roll returns outperform positions with positive roll returns, penng on the priancollaterreturns. “Therefore, it is possible thpositions with negative roll returns outperform positions with positive roll returns, penng on the priancollaterreturns.” 最后这段话是什么意思?老师可以帮忙下吗?

2022-10-02 19:50 1 · 回答

请问A错了是不是因为price上升(positive prireturn)也可能会有positive roll return? 比如 今年2月 ¥50 4月的FP=¥30 然后到了7月¥70 8月FP=¥60, absolute value来看是上升 positive prireturn 而且是backwartion 有positive roll return? 所以两者的关系是(1)contango一定是价格上升,但价格上升不一定能证明是contango,判断是否contango还是backwartion要看到期的FP价格和最近一期要roll买入的FP价格,和价格上升下降的曲线没有关系。请问是这样理解的吗? 谢谢

2020-11-13 07:19 1 · 回答

B为什么不对?

2020-08-16 23:10 1 · 回答

请问老师,能再一下C吗,roll return已经是负的了,为什么还能outperform。A,在本题中roll return是负数,是negative affect,为什么不能选呢?谢谢

2020-02-24 12:46 1 · 回答