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SUN · 2020年05月19日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000051 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

B的become没有错吗?应该在之前的early expansion阶段就已经是很严格的货币政策了吧? 还有周期产品在经济最旺盛的时候不就应该表现好吗
3 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年05月20日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


没有问题。这里想表达的是一个趋势,和之前比变得紧缩就OK

而且扩张早起不会实行严格货币政策,通常是通胀晚期才会实行扩张货币政策。

同学你的第二问我没太看懂,和这题有什么联系?


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


粉红豹 · 2020年10月08日

哲源老师您这句话对吗?-------通常是通胀晚期才会实行“扩张”货币政策吗? 通胀晚期的时候,货币政策应该是紧缩了啊??

SUN · 2020年10月08日

明显错的,从contraction才开始扩张

源_品职助教 · 2020年10月11日

第二句写错了,这一个勘误。应该是通胀晚期才会实行严格的货币政策。

圣灵霜子 · 2020年06月01日

周期性产品非常敏感,late expansion时期已经开始有颓势,周期性产品表现已经不好了

SUN · 2020年06月02日

谢谢,我之前记错了。

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