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一只可爱的猪 · 2020年03月24日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015120601000030

问题如下:

Which flow-of-funds indicator is considered bearish for equities?

选项:

A.

A large increase in the number of IPOs.

B.

Higher-than-average cash balances in mutual funds.

C.

An upturn in margin debt but one that is still below the long-term average.

解释:

A  is correct.

A large increase in the number of IPOs increases the supply of equity and if overall demand remains the same, puts downward pressure on equities. Also, companies tend to issue shares of equity when the managers believe they will receive a premium price, which is also an indicator of a market top.

不太明报这道题?老师能解答一下吗


2 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2020年07月12日

同学你好,简而言之:c选项的意思说是对杠杆率有一定限制,这个是好的。所以不选。

如果对股市的需求不是来自于对于投资者真的想买入持有股票而是为了股票质押业务的,这种行为本身带有很高的杠杆会加速市场的崩盘。

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2020年03月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,本题考查的是R56-技术分析,指标分析部分内容

首先 Technicians look at fund flows as a way to gauge the potential supply and demand for  equities。One caveat in looking at potential sources of demand is that, although these data indicate the potential buying power of various large investor groups, the data say nothing about the likelihood that the groups will buy.
技术分析考核的是需求供给关系,需求不变的情况下,股票市场的供给越大,股票下行的风险就越大,即市场上的投资需求不变,发行方大量发行股票,会造成股票破发或者存量股票下跌。选项A正确。

Demand can come in the form of margin borrowing against current holdings or cash holdings by mutual funds and other groups that are normally large holders of equities, such as insurance companies and pension funds. The more cash these groups hold, the more bullish is the indication for equities.

需求不是来自于投资者正常买卖,而是公募基金、保险公司或其他机构的的杠杆行为会加剧市场的崩盘。我们都知道美国的次贷危机爆发跟他大量的杠杆行为是密不可分的。所以低杠杆水平有助于维护金融市场的稳定,c选项错误。

关于B选项,题目说公募基金持有很多现金资产,现金即投资需求,市场上需求比较大,所以是股市上涨的信号,B项也错误。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!