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夏雪xiao96021 · 2020年03月13日

问一道题:NO.PZ2020012005000028

问题如下:

Suppose that speculators tend to take short futures positions on an asset, while and hedgers take long futures position. What would Keynes argue about the ability of futures prices to predict expected future spot prices?

选项:

解释:

Keynes would argue that the futures price overstates the expected future spot price because speculators are taking risks and require an expected positive profit to compensate for such risk. Hedgers are reducing risk and may be satisfied with a negative expected return.

这个题目是不是期货价格低于预估的现货价格吗,那应该是understate太对呀

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年03月14日

同学你好!

这里Keynes的看法是:hedger 是为了做 hedge,即放弃部分收益来转移风险,而 speculator 就是帮 hedger 承担这部分风险的人,所以他们应该获得一些承担风险的补偿。

题目里说 speculator 是 short position,也就是 short position 应该有 profit,即 future spot price < future price,也就是 future price 是被 overstate 了。

你可以再去听一下“ Expected Future Spot Prices ”这节视频或者参考原版书如下:

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