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ladycoco想放假 · 2020年03月12日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018123101000102

问题如下:

Fujioka tells Maalouf that she has been reading about the use of Monte Carlo forward- rate simulation for fixed income valuation. She asks Maalouf to further explain this approach to her. Maalouf replies, “The Monte Carlo approach is quite different from the binomial tree approach I’ve been describing to you. Some of these differences include:”

Difference 1: The Monte Carlo approach does not require calibration, whereas the binomial tree approach does.

Difference 2: The Monte Carlo approach is typically employed when cash flows are path dependent, whereas the binomial tree approach only allows one expected cash flow per node, regardless of the path of interest rates.

Difference 3: The Monte Carlo approach randomly simulates a fixed number of interest rate paths and values the security only across those paths, whereas the binomial tree approach values the security across all possible interest rate paths on the tree.

Of the three differences Maalouf describes between the binomial tree approach to fixed-income valuation and the Monte Carlo simulation approach, he is least likely correct regarding:

选项:

A.

Difference 3.

B.

Difference 2.

C.

Difference 1.

解释:

A Monte Carlo forward rate simulation randomly generates a large number of interest rate paths that will correctly value benchmark bonds only by chance. A fixed amount, known as a drift term, is added to every forward interest rate on every simulated path to calibrate the simulation so that the values estimated for benchmark bonds equal their market prices.

请问difference 3为什么是对的呢?感觉二叉树模型不可能涵盖所有利率路径啊,而monto carlo模拟应该也不是fixed number的利率路径吧?只要你多run几次,可以有无数多的路径。感觉这2个说反了。

2 个答案

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2021年03月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Difference 3不严谨就是因为很难列出所有的路径。但Difference 1错的更离谱所以才选1而不是3.

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吴昊_品职助教 · 2020年03月13日

difference3,蒙特卡洛是随机模拟了利率路径,有可能都是利率上涨的路径,不包含下降的路径。而二叉树列出利率上涨下跌的所有路径,包含了所有可能的路径。严格意义上来说,这个difference表述的不是很严谨。但是题目要我们选一个最不正确的,因此选择difference1.

amarelleqy · 2021年03月23日

可以说一下为什么difference3不是很严谨吗?虽然觉得什么地方有点问题,但是又讲不太清楚。

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