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为了求职冲呀 · 2020年03月09日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017092702000100

问题如下:

An analyst develops the following capital market projections.

Assuming the returns of the asset classes are described by normal distributions, which of the following statements is correct?

选项:

A.

Bonds have a higher probability of a negative return than stocks.

B.

On average, 99% of stock returns will fall within two standard deviations of the mean.

C.

The probability of a bond return less than or equal to 3% is determined using a Z-score of 0.25.

解释:

A is correct.

The chance of a negative return falls in the area to the left of 0% under a standard normal curve. By standardizing the returns and standard deviations of the two assets, the likelihood of either asset experiencing a negative return may be determined: Z-score (standardized value) = (X – μ)/σ Z-score for a bond return of 0% = (0 – 2)/5 = –0.40. Z-score for a stock return of 0% = (0 – 10)/15 = –0.67. For bonds, a 0% return falls 0.40 standard deviations below the mean return of 2%. In contrast, for stocks, a 0% return falls 0.67 standard deviations below the mean return of 10%. A standard deviation of 0.40 is less than a standard deviation of 0.67. Negative returns thus occupy more of the left tail of the bond distribution than the stock distribution. Thus, bonds are more likely than stocks to experience a negative return.

老师看了您给其他人的回答,很仔细谢谢您,我有两个小问题。在A解答里,您说两个资产都符合正态分布,请问正态分布的英文是什么?您还说两个资产属于不同的正态分布,请问bonds和stocks分别属于什么正态分布呢?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年03月10日

同学你好,

正态分布的英文是直译的normal distribution。

不同的正态分布指的是这两个资产的均值和方差不同,所以虽然都是正态分布,但是形状就不一样了。

Suechen · 2020年03月20日

可否用均值方差判断出来可能的分布图形状,然后判断谁更可能有负值吗,如果可以,这两种图形会是怎么样的,怎么判断呢

星星_品职助教 · 2020年03月20日

均值方差是没法判断分布的形状的,不同的分布可能会有相同的均值/方差

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