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一路向北 · 2020年03月01日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018120301000056 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Wang is a fixed-income analyst in a securities firm. One of his clients based in US invests in US and German corporate bonds. Suppose the currency risk is hedged. Wang believes that over the next 12-month, the interest in US will decline relative to that of German. Besides, in the US corporate market, the difference between average credit spread of 3-year BB corporate bonds and the average credit spread of 1-year BB corporate bonds will narrow.

According to the information above, which of the following strategy should Wang recommend to his client?

选项:

US Bonds
European Bonds
US 3-Year BB Bonds
US 1-year BB bonds

A.

Overweight
Underweight
Overweight
Underweight

B.

Overweight
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight

C.

Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Underweight

解释:

A is correct.

考点:考察相对利率变动时对应的投资

解析:投资于预期收益率相对下跌的市场可以获得更多Return;Wang预测美国债券市场的收益率相对于德国债券市场的收益率下跌,因此Overweight美国市场的债券,Underweight德国市场的债券,可以获得更高的收益;因为收益率相对下跌,意味着可以获得相对的Capital gain,以增强投资收益。所以在此预期下,可以overweight US bonds,并且Underweight German bond;同时预测在美国市场,BB级债券,3年期B的Average credit Spread,和1年期BB级债券Average credit Spread之间的差距在缩小,也就是说3年期的Average credit spread相对变小,因此再此预期下,可以overweight3年期的债券,Underweight 1年期的债券,获得相对更高的收益。

3年的信用利差相对变窄,价格相对变高,那就不应该买价格高的债券?
1 个答案

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年03月02日

同学你好,

这个题目是站在现在这一时刻,预测未来的价格走势(注意will这个词),3年期Credit spread将会相对降低,3年期债券价格上升,所以Overweight 3年期债券;1年期Credit spread将会相对上升,1年期债券价格下降,所以Underweight 1年期债券。