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Amber · 2020年02月29日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000037

问题如下:

Amy McLaughlin is a fixed-income portfolio manager at UK-based Delphi Investments. One year ago, given her expectations of a stable yield curve over the coming 12 months and noting that the yield curve was upward sloping, McLaughlin elected to position her portfolio solely in 20-year US Treasury bonds with a coupon rate of 4% and a price of 101.7593, with the expectation of selling the bonds in one year at a price of 109.0629. McLaughlin expected the US dollar to depreciate relative to the British pound by 1.50% during the year. McLaughlin chose the 20-year Treasury bonds because they were on the steepest part of the yield curve.

The portfolio strategy implemented by McLaughlin last year is mostly likely to be described as:

选项:

A.

a carry trade

B.

a barbell structure

C.

riding the yield curve

解释:

C is correct.

Last year, McLaughlin expected the yield curve to be stable over the year. Riding the yield curve is a strategy based on the premise that, as a bond ages, it will decline in yield if the yield curve is upward sloping. This is known as “roll down”; that is, the bond rolls down the (static) curve. Riding the yield curve differs from buy and hold in that the manager is expecting to add to returns by selling the security at a lower yield at the horizon. This strategy may be particularly effective if the portfolio manager targets portions of the yield curve that are relatively steep and where price appreciation resulting from the bond’s migration to maturity can be significant. McLaughlin elected to position her portfolio solely in 20-year Treasury bonds, which reflect the steepest part of the yield curve, with the expectation of selling the bonds in one year

老師好,想問關於roll down return,為什麼越steep的曲線的roll down return越大?假設2年債券只hold 1年 這樣不是因為折現率越高在第一年底的價格越低嗎?

謝謝。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年03月01日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


“想問關於roll down return,為什麼越steep的曲線的roll down return越大?假設2年債券只hold 1年 這樣不是因為折現率越高在第一年底的價格越低嗎?”


假设我们是期初买入10年期债券做Riding the yield curve,期初买入时为他定价的利率是10年期利率,投资2年,卖出债券时变成了8年期债券,此时为他定价的利率是8年期利率。

所以,债券买入时是10年期利率定价、卖出时是8年期利率定价。

Upward sloping收益率曲线是向上倾斜时,10年期利率大于8年期利率,并且我们预测卖出债券时,收益率曲线没变(Stable),那卖出时10年期利率依然大于8年期利率;

这样的话,买入债券时,买入价以更高的10年期利率定价(买入价较低),卖出债券时以更低的8年期利率定价(卖出价更高),这样一买一卖获得Capital gain的收益。

只有当收益率曲线越陡峭,代表着10年期利率与8年期利率的差距越大,也就是8年期利率小于10年期利率的幅度越大,于是,卖出债券与买入债券时定价的利率差距越大,产生的买卖价差越大。

Rolling the yield curve,赚取的就是这个买卖价差,买卖价差越大这个策略的收益就越大,影响买卖价差的本质就是10年期利率与8年期利率的差距,两个利率之间的差距,代表着收益率曲线的陡峭程度,所以收益率曲线越陡峭(利率差距越大),Rolldown产生的收益越高。


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