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谷正凯Karen · 2020年02月25日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000046 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Hirji also proposes the following duration-neutral trades for the French institutional client:

Long/short trade on 1-year and 3-year Canadian government bonds

Short/long trade on 10-year and long-term Canadian government bonds

Which yield curve forecast will most likely result in the highest profit for Hirji’s proposed duration-neutral trades?

选项:

A.

Increase in curvature

B.

Decrease in curvature

C.

Parallel downward shift

解释:

A is correct.

The trades are also called a condor and employ four positions, much like a butterfly with an elongated body. Each pair of duration-neutral trades would result in a profit if the yield curve adds curvature. The trades at the short end of the curve (going long the 1-year bond and short the 3-year bond) would profit if that end of the curve gets steeper. In addition, the trades at the long end of the curve (going short the 10-year bond and long the long-term bond) would profit if that end of the curve becomes flatter.

可以辨析一下C为啥不对么
1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月26日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


“可以辨析一下C为啥不对么”


如果我们预测收益率曲线会下降,那其实不用这么麻烦构建这个Condor策略,我们完全可以只增加组合的Duration、只要买债券就行了,组合增加Duration,就一定能从Parrallel downward shift中获利。


这道题说,构建了Long 1-year/Short 3-year;Short 10-year/Long Long-term这个Condor策略,问我们最有可能发生的利率预期是啥?

Condor、Buttlerfly这两个策略是针对收益率曲线Curvature改变的;因为Condor/Butterly策略是Duration-neutral的,也就是从Portfolio的整体来看,他是对收益率平行移动的敏感度为0:收益率曲线平行移动时,不会对策略产生收益影响。

所以可以直接排除C。

虽然整体而言,Condor/Butterfly是Duration-neutral的,但是在策略内部,他们有Long/Short的分布,例如,Long中期债券、Short长短期债券,所以这两策略能获得收益率曲线弯曲度Curvature改变带来的收益。


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