问题如下：
An. analyst has noted that the default frequency in the pharmaceutical industry has been constant at 8% for an extended period of time. Based on this information, which of the following statements is most likely correct for a randomly selected firm following a Bernoulli distribution?
I. The cumulative probability that a randomly selected firm in the pharmaceutical industry will default is constant.
II. The probability that the firm survives for the next 6 years without default is approximately 60%.
选项： I only.
II only.
C.Both I and II.
D.Neither I nor II.
解释：
B Statement I is false because the cumulative probability of default increases (i.e., even the highest rated companies will eventually fail over a long enough period). Statement II is true since the probability the firm survives over the next 6 years without default is: (1 - 0.08)6 = 60.6%
请问第二问可以用连续复利来计算吗？e^(-8%*6)≈61.8%
