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rikkisong72 · 2020年02月23日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000107

问题如下:

The most likely ranking of the yield curve components shown in Exhibit 2 from highest to lowest percentage of overall curve movements explained is:

选项:

A.

Component A, then Component B, then Component C.

B.

Component B, then Component C, then Component A.

C.

Component C, then Component A, then Component B.

解释:

C is correct.

Component (C) is a "shift" in which all yields move in the same direction by similar, though not exactly equal, amounts. The shift is by far the dominant component of yield curve movements. Duration, which assumes shifts are actually parallel, derives its importance as risk measure from this fact. Component (A) is a "twist" in which the ends of the yield curve move in opposite directions while the middle of curve stays roughly unchanged. The twist is the second most important type of yield curve movement. Bond managers focus on barbells versus bullets during twist-induced changes in the slope of the yield curve. Component (B) is a "butterfly" movement in which the ends of the yield curve move in the same direction and the middle of the curve moves in the opposite direction. While meaningful butterflies are less important than twists and much less important than shifts in terms of explaining overall movements of the yield curve. Butterflies are driven in part by changes in yield volatility.

A is incorrect. Component (C) is a "shift," which is by far the most important component of yield curve movements. Component (A) is a "twist," which is more important than Component (B), which is a "butterfly" movement.

B is incorrect. Component (C) is a "shift," which is by far the most important component of yield curve movements. Component (A) is a "twist," which is more important than Component (B), which is a "butterfly" movement.

请问这道题怎么看出来ABC的变动方向的?benchmark是什么?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这道题因为题干信息有错误,协会在勘误里面已经删掉了,题目不建议做了。但是对应的知识点还在,相关知识点可以参考基础班Reading 20这里:


“请问这道题怎么看出来ABC的变动方向的?benchmark是什么?”


这道题就是基于Exhibit 2来判断的,我们先不管表格里的数据是错误的,就以这个表格为例看一下解题思路。

表格里的数据,有三个Factor,对应Component A/B/C,然后注意表头,他说每个Factor经历一个+ 1 Standard deviation的变化,具体的利率变动就如表格内所示。

对于Component A,经历一个+ 1 Standard deviation的变化,他是短期利率上升、长期利率下降,这是短期相对于长期的改变,所以我们知道这个Factor是收益曲线斜率的改变,对应的是Twists这个Factor;

Component B,经历一个+ 1 Standard deviation的变化,他是短期利率下降、中期利率上升、长期利率下降,这是中期利率、相对于长期、短期利率的改变,所以我们知道这个Factor是收益率曲线弯曲度的改变,对应的是Butterfly factor;

Component C,经历一个+ 1 Standard deviation的变化,发现整条收益率曲线都同向上升,所以我们可以判断他是Shift factor。


我们原版书给出来的结论,从实证研究中发现,对历史上收益率曲线的变化进行剥离,发现绝大多少收益率曲线的影响是由Shift factor引起的,其次是Twists,最后是Butterfly;

所以对overall curve movements的影响程度排序的话是:Shift > twists > butterfly,

于是对应这道题的:Component C > Component A > Component B

参考下页讲义:




所以这道题的就是根据表格里的数据,分别判断出来Component A/B/C对应什么Factor,然后根据结论判断即可。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!