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qiqi1996 · 2020年02月16日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000101

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

Which of Winslow’s statements about carry trades is correct?

选项:

A.

Statement I

B.

Statement II

C.

Statement III

解释:

A is correct.

Carry trades may or may not involve maturity mis-matches. Intra-market carry trades typically do involve different maturities, but inter-market carry trades frequently do not, especially if the currency is not hedged.

B is incorrect. Carry trades may involve only one yield curve, as is the case for intra-market trades. In addition, if two curves are involved they need not have different slopes provided there is a difference in the level of yields between markets.

C is incorrect. Inter-market carry trades do not, in general, break even if each yield curve goes to its forward rates. Intra-market trades will break even if the curve goes to the forward rates because, by construction of the forward rates, all points on the curve will earn the "first-period" rate (that is, the rate for the holding period being considered). Inter-market trades need not break even unless the "first-period" rate is the same in the two markets. If the currency exposure is not hedged, then breaking even also requires that there be no change in the currency exchange rate.

想问一下 这一题C选项该怎么理解呢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

carolllll · 2020年02月17日

同学你好,

 

C选项想表达的意思是,如果这道题改成“Intra-market carry trades just break even if both yield curves move to the forward rates” 则这句话是正确的。

 

首先一开始题干说的是“Inter-market carry trades just break even if both yield curves move to the forward rates”,这个是肯定不对的,因为Inter-market carry trades涉及到两个国家的利率曲线,由于两个国家的利率完全不一样,即使both yield curves move to the forward rates,也不能保证是breakeven。

 

那么我们来看下为什么变成了Intra-market carry trades这句话就是正确的呢,

 

首先carry trade的本质就是赚利差,在Intra-market能够invest at long run interest rate and borrow at short term interest rate 而赚钱其实就是一直用S1的利率滚动融资n年会比直接用Sn的利率低,因为upward sloping+stable yield curve。如果现在利率曲线不再是stable,而是move to forward rates,那么就不再是一直用S1的利率滚动融资,而是第一期用S1,第二期就是f12, 第三期就是f23…,假设是三年期的话,(1+S3)^3=(1+S1)*(1+f12)*(1+f23),由此可看,我们不再可以利用短期短的融资成本赚利差,所以是breakeven。

 

希望对你有帮助哦~