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1065455899 · 2020年02月10日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000046

问题如下:

Hirji also proposes the following duration-neutral trades for the French institutional client:

Long/short trade on 1-year and 3-year Canadian government bonds

Short/long trade on 10-year and long-term Canadian government bonds

Which yield curve forecast will most likely result in the highest profit for Hirji’s proposed duration-neutral trades?

选项:

A.

Increase in curvature

B.

Decrease in curvature

C.

Parallel downward shift

解释:

A is correct.

The trades are also called a condor and employ four positions, much like a butterfly with an elongated body. Each pair of duration-neutral trades would result in a profit if the yield curve adds curvature. The trades at the short end of the curve (going long the 1-year bond and short the 3-year bond) would profit if that end of the curve gets steeper. In addition, the trades at the long end of the curve (going short the 10-year bond and long the long-term bond) would profit if that end of the curve becomes flatter.

为什么duration neutral下increase in curvature会获利

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


"为什么duration neutral下increase in curvature会获利"


这道题的策略,Long 1-year/Short 3-year and Short 10-year/Long long-term

发现这是一个Condor的策略,收益率如何变动上面的策略才能受益呢?


因为我们是Long long-term bond,长期债券的Duration非常大,所以长期利率上升肯定是对我们不利的,既然我们做了Long long-term bond的策略,所以我们认为长期利率一定是下跌的,这样通过Long long-term bond的策略,可以享受长期债券价格上升的好处;

同理,我们发现,Short 3-year and 10-year bond,也就是做空了3-year、10-year的债券,我们一定是预测3-year、10-year债券的价格是下降的,只有这样做空他们才有盈利,否则就是亏损的。

于是预测3-year、10-year的价格下降,对应着就是预测3-year、10-year的利率上升;Long 1-year债券的分析同理。

这样的话我们分析发现,如果Long 1-year/Short 3-year and Short 10-year/Long long-term这个策略要盈利,收益率曲线就要发生:3-year/10-year利率的相对上升,Long-term利率的相对下降;

这就是中期利率相对上升、长短期利率相对下降的利率预期;正是基于这样的利率预期,题干信息的策略才会盈利。

这道题的问法刚好是反过来,他问我们如果要构建题干信息里的策略,我们是基于什么样的利率预期;那就是分析一下题干信息这个Condor策略能盈利的利率变化是什么,分析思路就是上面的答疑,于是选A。



至于题目说的Duration-neutral,是指整个策略来看Duration=0;

因为整个策略是一个Long/Short的策略,Long long-term and long 1-year bond会增加组合的Duration,同时Short 3-year and short 10-year会降低整个组合的Duration,通过合适的配比,可以使得整个策略的Duration=0,这样的话,如果利率曲线发生整体的移动,例如平行上移,整个策略不会受到影响;

这样的话,题干信息的这个策略,不会受到利率的整体移动影响,只会受益于Curvature的增加。


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