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Lulu1214 · 2020年02月02日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000042

问题如下:

McLaughlin and Michaela Donaldson, a junior analyst at Delphi, are now discussing how to reposition the portfolio in light of McLaughlin’s expectations about interest rates over the next 12 months. She expects interest rate volatility to be high and the yield curve to experience an increase in the 2s/10s/30s butterfly spread, with the 30-year yield remaining unchanged. Selected yields on the Treasury yield curve, and McLaughlin’s expected changes in yields over the next 12 months, are presented in Exhibit 1.

Donaldson suggests they also consider altering the portfolio’s convexity to enhance expected return given McLaughlin’s interest rate expectations. Donaldson tells McLaughlin the following.

Statement 1 Portfolios with larger convexities often have higher yields.

Statement 2 If yields rise, a portfolio of a given duration with higher convexity will experience less of a price decrease than a similar-duration, lower-convexity portfolio.

Which of Donaldson’s statements is correct?

选项:

A.

Only Statement 1

B.

Only Statement 2

C.

Both Statements 1 and 2

解释:

B is correct.

Statement 2 is correct: If yields rise, a portfolio of a given duration with higher convexity will experience less of a price decrease than a similar-duration, lower-convexity portfolio. Statement 1 is incorrect, as portfolios with larger convexities often have lower yields. Investors will be willing to pay for increased convexity when they expect yields to change by more than enough to cover the sacrifice in yield.

题干中提到说int rate volatility是高的,那么statement1改成正确的说法应该是“portfolios with larger convexities often have higher realised return”这样就是对的是吗。yield在任何时候都是专指代bond的ytm吗?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月04日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


“题干中提到说int rate volatility是高的,那么statement1改成正确的说法应该是“portfolios with larger convexities often have higher realised return”这样就是对的是吗”


对的。

在利率波动高的预期下,(相同Duration)下,Convexity越大的债券,实现的投资收益(Realised return)就越大,因为Convexity的涨多跌少。

但是,这个预期的高波动率一定要实现,如果没实现的话,Convexity大的债券,因为期初买的时候花费了更高的成本,Convexity没能实现涨多跌少的价值,但又付出了Buy convexity的成本,所以Convexity大的债券反而能实现的收益较低。



"yield在任何时候都是专指代bond的ytm吗?”


是的,在债券这里就是指分母的折现率(YTM)。



所以,Statement 1:Portfolios with larger convexities often have higher yields.是错误的

Larger convexities的债券,买的时候价格更贵,所以反算出来的折现率(YTM,yield)就越低,如果把这样的债券持有至到期的话,能实现的持有至到期收益率就比较低,低于Smaller convexity债券的持有至到期收益率。

但我们购买Larger convexities的债券,就是寄希望于利率发生较大波动,能产生涨多跌少的优势,也就是提前卖出、实现更高的Capital gain or 更少的Capital Loss,并非是持有至到期的目的。

总结下,Larger convexity的债券,持有至到期收益率YTM比较低(低于Smaller convexity债券),但是一旦利率能实现较大波动,那Larger convexity的债券能实现的收益(Realised return)更高。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!