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跳跳跳舞 · 2020年02月02日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061 [ CFA II ]

问题如下:

Assumethat the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency whilethe EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed tofluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchangerate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibriumvalue of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spreadbetween the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflationdifferential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

Allelse equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead todepreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibriumreal exchange rate + (realinterest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


选项B和C能分别对应uncovered interest rate parity和ExAnte PPP吗?如果能,感觉B和C都对唉😔

2 个答案

BuzZMonkey · 2020年02月23日

老师您好,

我看了您的答案有两个疑惑。

  1. 公式右边第一个括号里的内容不应该是 real 而不是nominal 的值,除了它方向说反了以外,可以把这个也看做判读B 不正确的一个依据吗?
  2. C 选项您说的是 通胀也是一种风险,但选项写的是expected inflation differential. 预期的值可以看做是不确定的值(uncertainty),所以可以被定义为风险吗?

谢谢您的解答

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


不能啊。

选项B其实说的是解析第一行公式中右边第一个括号里的内容

而C选项说的是公式右边第二括号反应的内容(通胀代表了一种风险,从而会影响风险溢价)


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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