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粉红豹 · 2020年01月28日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

老师,题目题干中的英文表述的意思是“现在处于slowdown phase”,然后bond yield刚开始表现出contraction特征。也就是说现在在contraction的早期,那么接下来应该进入深度衰退啊,而不是马上复苏呀???

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这里不需要想复杂,题目只要出现 contraction 你就当做是一个阶段,然后问这个人接下来预计收益率曲线怎么变。接着CONTRACTION后面的就是快复苏了。

而且原版书上说的原理也很清楚,收益率曲线变陡峭的原因就是央行实施了宽松的货币政策,短期利率下降。

所以只要是contraction ,央行就可以做这个货币宽松的政策。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


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