您好请问一下还是没太明白，在经济衰退期为什么curve不是invert或者flat，还没到开始复苏的时候就已经steepen了？谢谢🙏
问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 在slowwn阶段，因为央行加息或者加准，短期利率很高，yielcurve变平，则下一个阶段可能是降准降息，曲线steepen。但如果slowwn阶段曲线invert了，他降低短期利率至少得先变平，再变陡峭，此题没考虑这种情况
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 如题
NO.PZ2018091901000054问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepenC is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase.解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 这道题如果只看表选steepen没问题，但observation 3说，现在处于slowwn，马上开始contraction，题目问的是neterm那么slowwn是invert，近期应该也是invert呀，图形变化也应该有个过程，不可能马上从invert变成steepen，如果处于slowwn且图形是invert，近期肯定是invert，等待辅导员。
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase.解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 经济周期处于slow wn向contraction发展阶段，收益率曲线不是应该从invert向flatten过渡吗？为何是steepening？
NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase.解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 最初做题的时候，把contractionary contions理解成了经济状况收缩，那么经济状况收缩等同于经济开始slow wn，所以对应yielcurve是inverte按照答案理解，contractionary contions 应该理解成“政策开始收紧”吗，还是理解成 “经济要逐渐进入contraction phase”？麻烦老师解答，谢谢
