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Sure · 2020年01月21日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000105 第5小题 [ CFA III ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

题目中有句话是 british bond will remain stable versus the EUR,为什么还要hedge呢,这句话是什么含义呢?想问一下这道题有视频讲解吗,感觉好难 问题如下图:

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年01月22日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


”想问一下这道题有视频讲解吗,感觉好难 ”


有的,这道题在基础班当成例题有讲解。参考Reading 20下面的知识点:



“题目中有句话是 british bond will remain stable versus the EUR,为什么还要hedge呢,这句话是什么含义呢?


对的,题目中的有预测:the British Pound will remain stable versus the Euro.

也就是他预期,期末EUR与GBP的汇率保持稳定。这个就是预期未来的即期汇率不变,所以他对应的收益就是Unhedged的收益。

就是因为预期期末的汇率Stable,所以用期末的即期汇率把EUR的收益换回GBP的收益,外汇带来的收益为0%。

这就是Unhedged return:直接用未来即期汇率换汇的收益。


但是如果我们利用Forward hedge汇率风险,在期初Forward合约就能约定好期末换汇汇率,那换汇的收益在期初就可以确定下来,利用Forward约定换汇汇率获得的换汇收益为:

(F-S0)/S0;其中S0是期初的即期汇率,F是Forward里约定的期末换汇汇率,所以利用Forward换汇获得的收益是:(F-S0)/S0

根据Interest rate parity,这个收益约等于两国的利率之差,因为是6个月的Forward,所以是6个月的利率之差:

(F-S0)/S0 约等于 A国6个月利率 减去 B国6个月利率。这就是利用Forward Hedged return

这里有个小技巧,就是Hedge成哪个国家的货币,哪个国家的货币就在减号前面。

例如,把EUR hedge成GBP,也就是期末用Forward约定将EUR换成GBP,那GBP的利率就在减号前面,EUR的利率在减号后面

这样的话,把EUR hedge成GBP获得的收益约为:(0.50%-0.15%)/2 = 0.175%;

因为题目给的都是年利率,而Forward只有6个月,所以要除以2。这就是利用Forward把EUR hedge成GBP获得的收益。

发现,对于GBP Portfolio,不Hedge、期末用即期汇率换汇的收益是:0%;

而Hedge,利用Forward换汇的收益是:0.175%;显然是用Forward hedge掉汇率风险更好,所以对于GBP Portfolio我们选择Hedge

 

总结一下:

我们已经在多个国家的债券里,选择出了Greek bond的收益最高,所以我们给GBP Portfolio投资了Greek债券,但是期末我们需要把EUR的收益换回GBP的收益。

这时候有两种换汇途径:

第一种,是利用分析师的预期汇率换,也就是不Hedge、直接用期末的即期汇率换,这对应本题他的预测:the British Pound will remain stable versus the Euro;因为是Stable,所以Unhedged return = 0%;

第二种换汇方法,是利用Forward在期初就约定换汇汇率,换汇的收益约等于两国利率之差,对于本题,因为是把EUR hedge成GBP,所以我们算出来的Hedged return  ≈ 6个月利率GBP - 6个月利率EUR;使用6个月利率,是因为Forward是6个月的期限。

发现,第二种利用Forward换汇的方法获得的收益更高,所以对于GBP portfolio,我们就是利用Forward Hedge掉Currency risk,用Forward期末约定的汇率换汇。


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