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Marina_0122 · 2020年01月05日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512300100000303

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

3. In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct.

The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.

这题怎么理解 短期利率高 ERP不是应该低吗 投资回报率不应该低吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

maggie_品职助教 · 2020年01月06日

请仔细读题干,它是让你用当前的短期利率,和历史的ERP来估计:re=rf+beta(rm-rf)


1、当前利率曲线是inverted,说明短期利率大于长期利率,因此公式第一项rf较大


2、rm-rf用历史ERP,历史上利率曲线是normal形态-upward sloping(短期小于长期),因此rm-rf较大


综上,用当前rf和历史ERP,会高估re

Yang · 2020年02月10日

“当前利率曲线是inverted,说明短期利率大于长期利率,因此公式第一项rf较大” 这个信息点是文段最后一句给出的。课上老师说出题顺序和行文顺序是一致的,所以这题是一个例外情况,最后出现的信息点在靠前的提出出题?

maggie_品职助教 · 2020年02月10日

这是课后题所以不太规范,而且整道题就一段文字,这不是考试风格。在考试中除了第一段有可能是背景介绍外,其余一段对应一道题,不会出现条件后置的情况。

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