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梨子梨子好口渴 · 2020年01月05日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问老师,为什么B不正确?

2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

同学你的理解是正确的,但是有时候在实务中中会用观测到的名义数值代替真实数值,因为名义值比较容易观测

总之这题写的不是很严谨。

源_品职助教 · 2020年01月06日

这里nominal yield spread就相当于公式中右边第一个括号里差值。
如果写成DM/EM形式,那么括号里的数值越大,等式右边就越大。此时EM对DM升值,而非题干末尾说的贬值
所以B的说法说反了,不选。

 

Chelsea · 2020年02月02日

助教老师请问您 real interest rate B - real interest rate A 为什么是nominal yield spread呢? 这里是real的interest rate的差值 不是nominal的啊

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