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我叫仙人涨 · 2019年12月27日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512300100000303

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

3. In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct.

The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.

题目不是说currently the government yield curve is inverted;

at the short- end, yields are 9 percent and at 10- year maturities, yields are 7 percent.

beta ( rm - rf ) 里面的rf大,ERP 应该是小才对呀?

2 个答案

我叫仙人涨 · 2019年12月28日

题目也没说ERP用正常的图,而第一个rf用题目里面说的倒挂的图呀? 


题目只是说用倒挂的图呀? 所以告诉你所有rf应该用倒挂的图呀?

maggie_品职助教 · 2019年12月30日

请看题目后半句: and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate, ERP用的是历史的收益率曲线计算的。

maggie_品职助教 · 2019年12月28日

re=rf+beta(rm-rf)

1、Although the yield curve has usually been upward sloping,currently the government yield curve is inverted

当前利率曲线倒挂(短期高于长期)。当前利率曲线是inverted,说明短期利率大于长期利率,因此公式第一项rf较大

2、rm-rf用历史ERP,历史上利率曲线是normal形态-upward sloping(短期小于长期),因此rm-rf较大

综上,用当前rf和历史ERP,会高估re

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