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shirley_hd · 2019年12月05日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000048

问题如下:

Sanober Hirji is a junior analyst with Northco Securities, which is based in Canada. The institutional clients of Northco are active investors in Canadian coupon-bearing government bonds. Client portfolios are benchmarked to a Canadian government bond index, which is a diverse maturity index portfolio.

Hirji then considers the scenario where the yield curve will lose curvature for the Malaysian institutional client. She notes that a 7-year Canadian government bond is also available in the market. Hirji proposes a duration-neutral portfolio comprised of 47% in 5-year bonds and 53% in 7-year bonds.

Relative to the Canadian government bond index, the portfolio that Hirji proposes for the Malaysian client will most likely:

选项:

A.

underperform.

B.

remain stable.

C.

outperform.

解释:

C is correct.

Hirji proposes an extreme bullet portfolio focusing on the middle of the yield curve. If the forecast is correct and the yield curve loses curvature, the rates at either end of the curve will rise or the intermediate yields will drop. As a result, bonds at the ends of the yield curve will lose value or the intermediate bonds will increase in value. In either case, the bullet portfolio will outperform relative to a more diverse maturity index portfolio like the benchmark.

这道题意思是说loss curvature的话,5年和7年的利率都降低,但因为7年duration高,所以利率降低带来的price上升的影响更明显,所以应该7年多投些吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2019年12月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这道题对收益率曲线的预测是:Loss curvature,也就是预测中期利率下跌。

能盈利的策略应该是:Long中期债券;因为中期利率下降、对应的中期债券价格会上升,可以获得Capital gain。


当前的组合是和Benchmark匹配的,并且知道Index是一个Maturity分布较为均匀的指数,所以当前的组合是一个分布均匀的组合:

Client portfolios are benchmarked to a Canadian government bond index, which is a diverse maturity index portfolio.


根据收益率变动的预期,我们应该买一个中期债券、获得Capital gain,但是这道题并没有直接买一个中期债券,而是利用两个中期债券,构建了一个中期Portfolio:47% 5-year和53% 7-year,也就是买了5-year和7-year的债券,构成了中期债券组合(也可以知道,这是一个集中在中期的Bullet portfolio)。

因为原本组合是Match Index的、并且Index是一个diverse maturity的指数,也就是原先Portfolio的分布较为均为,现在调成了一个Duration-neutral的5-Year/7-year组合,这里的Duration-neutral是指:把原先分布均匀的组合,调整成为一个由5-year/7-year构成的Bullet组合,调整前后Duration不变(Duration-neutral)


然后题目问:调整后的组合和Canadian government bond index相比表现如何?

因为调整后,组合集中在中期、会受益于中期利率下降(Loss curvature)获得Capital gain,所以调整后的表现会更好;

相反,调整前的组合是一个Maturity分布均匀的组合,他和指数一样,虽然也能受益于中期利率下降,但是组合中期债券占比较小,所以表现相对较差。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!