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蜗牛也是牛Megan · 2019年11月25日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018103102000046

问题如下:

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she considers adding PZ Inc. to her portfolio. Previously, she believed the company would have extraordinary growth for 4 years and normal growth thereafter. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 8 years instead of 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Which of the following statement is true?

Statement 1: If the H model is used, the total value estimated would increase.

Statement 2: By using DDM, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.

选项:

A.

Statement 1.

B.

Statement 2.

C.

Both of it.

解释:

A is correct.

考点:DDM& H-model

解析:A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间,那么股票的价值就会上升。

这道题考核哪个知识点呢?为什么价格都会上升?

1 个答案

maggie_品职助教 · 2019年11月25日

这里就是DDM和H模型的比较。如果你用画图的形式可能更直观得来理解。


statement1 :图形上的面积可以近似看作是计算的股票价值,面积越大价值越大。相比第二阶段增长率马上下降到一定水平,H模型的增长率的下降是缓慢的,因此相比DDM,它的面积相当于多了一块儿三角形。


statement2:两阶段股票价值=高速增长部分的现值+低速增长部分的现值(也就是终值,一般用GGM来计算)。GGM=D1/r-g 第一阶段高速增长时间越长,D1就越大,那么GGM计算出来的终值也就越大。



472121 · 2020年04月01日

关于statement2的“GGM计算出来的终值也就越大”,请问原题这里the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage要不要考虑折现到0时刻?如果考虑,即使终值大,比例也不一定变大吧?

maggie_品职助教 · 2020年04月01日

你说的没错,这要具体计算看看。statement2不要是错在它说不变。

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NO.PZ2018103102000046问题如下Jacques is the portfolio manager of pension anshe consirs aing PZ Into her portfolio. Previously, she believethe company woulhave extraornary growth for 4 years annormgrowth thereafter. After carefully consiring the characteristiof the company anits competitors, she is wonring whthe consequences woulif the ration of the first stage wassumeto 8 years insteof 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Whiof the following statement is true?Statement 1: If the H mol is use the totvalue estimatewoulincrease.Statement 2: using M, the proportion of the totvalue of the storepresentethe seconstage woulnot change.Statement 1. Statement 2. Both of it. A is correct.考点M H-mol解析A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间,那么股票的价值就会上升。我的理解是在永续经营的假设下,第一阶段只是增加了四年,第二阶段仍然是经对的大头,姥第二阶段的占比变化是否可以忽略不计,那么第二项也可以是正确的?

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