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wendysakura · 2019年11月11日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018091705000060

  1. CFA III
  2. 个人IPS

问题如下：

John C. Hill, sole owner of JCH Equipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company and approaches Mary Keller, a wealth adviser, for advice.

Hill refers his friend, Richard Morrison, the former CEO of Masury Bridge and Iron (MBI), to Keller to discuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison and gathers the following information:

• Richard Morrison is 50 years old and his spouse, Meredith, is 49 years old. Both are healthy and both expect to live at least an additional 40 years.

• The Morrisons have a 20-year-old son and would like to transfer 5% of their wealth to him during their lifetime.

• Richard Morrison retired two years ago and intends to spend his time serving on philanthropic boards; Meredith does not work.

• The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently valued at $50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth.

• MBI is a large, publicly traded company, and the Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the total market capitalization.

• The Morrison family depends on dividends from MBI for their day-to-day living expenses.

• The cost basis of their MBI shares is close to zero, and the capital gains tax rate is 15%.

• Richard Morrison is loyal to MBI, follows the stock closely, believes he knows the company better than other investors, and expects the company to continue to be a good investment in the future just like it has been in the past.

• The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current standard of living during retirement.

Explain three emotional biases that may affect Richard Morrison’s decision making.

选项：

解释：

A number of emotional biases can negatively affect the decision-making of holders of concentrated positions. Specifically, Richard Morrison’s decision to diversify may be negatively affected by loyalty effects, overconfidence/familiarity, and status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts indicate that Mr. Morrison is extremely loyal to MBI (loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better than other investors (overconfidence/familiarity); and he expects the company to continue to be a good investment as it has been in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns).

1）请问为何此题有naïve extrapolation呢？这个不是应该在DC plan中的吗？2）此题为何没有halo effect and representativeness bias呢？谢谢。

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2 个答案

包包_品职助教 · 2019年11月12日

同学你好，因为协会不同科目的教材是不同的人写的，参考的书目也不一样。在行为金融学中的分类和在个人IPS中的分类不同，只能说明写教材的人对这两个心里偏差的认知不同，那我们就把这个知识点在这两门课中分开来理解记忆就好了。

另外，在行为金融学中认为naïve extrapolation 等同于representativeness bias，但是在一些理论中这两个还是不完全一样的，在另外一些理论中我们认为representativeness bias是选择性偏差，是一部分去推测整体，人们喜欢把事物分为典型的几个类别，然后在对事件进行概率估计时，过分强调这种典型类别的重要性，而不顾有关其他潜在可能性的证据。而naïve extrapolation 主要是指喜欢用过去推断未来所以还是有区别的。从这个角度去看，就不觉得违背了

包包_品职助教 · 2019年11月11日

同学你好，naïve extrapolation是指对过去回报的天真推断，它是一种心理现象，不是应该在DCplan里面

2）halo effect and representativeness bias是行为金融学中的名词，在个人IPS中没有这两个名词

我贴下这部分相关的讲义你看看

 

wendysakura · 2019年11月11日

在BF讲义第137页提到，naïve extrapolation 与representativeness一回事，并且都出现在DC plan的地方。

包包_品职助教 · 2019年11月11日

DC plan 里出现了naive ，并不代表naive 就只有在DC plan里面才有，只能说DC plan 有这个特点，那么其他的投资也可能有这个特点，这不冲突的

wendysakura · 2019年11月12日

老师好，我的意思是，在BF讲义第137页，老师讲的是naïve extrapolation 等同于representativeness bias， 那么我理解他们是同一个意思，但是在个人IPS中，提到了naïve extrapolation, 却没有提到representative,反而放在了emotional bias中，是否与BF的放入cognitive errors的representative，相互违背了呢。谢谢了谢

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NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 老师，RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. 这可不可以理解为representative basis呢?

2021-11-02 10:35 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 这个为啥不是halo bias就是那个光环效应？因为他觉得这公司好

2021-10-15 23:19 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 没有Availability bias吗？因为熟悉MBI所以认为会一直好下去。

2021-07-07 22:35 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 问题如上 感觉这两个概念没怎么见过呢

2021-04-05 17:27 2 · 回答

John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 请问从哪句可以看出loyalty?

2021-01-24 12:27 1 · 回答