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月乔DD · 2019年11月07日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000064

问题如下:

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?


选项:

A.

Statement 3

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 1

解释:

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisisperiods compared with tranquil periods.

解析:A选项最准确的。与平静时期相比,危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

C选项错误,the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降,表明危机已经发生,就不是危机的信号了。

B选项错误,因为危机发生前,经济不会有什么额外的增长。

请问term of trade和trade balance 区别是啥?

3 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

因为 term of trade 下降的时候, trade balance 可能还是一个正数(可能是由于之前存在贸易盈余)

那么在这种情况下,只有term of trade 持续不断下降, trade balance才可能变成一个负数,恶化才能看得出苗头。

源_品职助教 · 2019年12月20日

term of trade 大幅下降的时候, Trade balance 不一定是恶化。

比如TERM OF TRADE 下降到1以下了,而Trade balance 仍是一个大于0的数值了。

所以只有当TERM OF TRADE 非常糟糕的时候,Trade balance 才会由正转负。

tzdsgn · 2020年01月23日

是这样的概念吗?Term of trade = exports/imports. Trade balance =exports- imports

源_品职助教 · 2019年11月07日

term of trade 是指“出口总值/进口总值”,它本身是一个比值,RATIO的概念。

而 trade balance 是指经常性账户的平衡。

前者可以看做是后者的先行指标

lola_wang · 2019年12月19日

term of trade 大幅下降说明出口较进口的差扩大,那trade balance不平衡程度扩大。在我看来是一个意思啊?为啥说前者是后者先行指标?

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