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砯砯testy · 2019年11月03日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016070202000015 [ FRM II ]

问题如下图:

选项:

A.

B.

C.

D.

解释:

请问,老师讲在stress时期,correlation会大幅上升,因此造成correlation的volatility也变大,这可以理解。那么,从正常时期的低correlation到stress时期的高correlation不是必然存在平滑作用,用long term来估计stress 时期,不是必然会低估吗?
2 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年06月03日

因为确实存在反例的,2005年那次危机不就是correlation下降么,这个volatile不好说是上升还是下降的,所以不一定是低估。

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2019年11月03日

同学你好,前一句话是没问题的,但是后一句话里,根据长期计算出的相关性,我们并不能知道是偏高还是偏低,因为可能近期我们预估的相关性是低的,而远期我们预估的相关性是高的,这样基于长期算出的相关性,就偏高了呀。而且一个投资组合中,是有多项资产的,两两资产间具有相关性,并且还得考虑各资产的大小。所以第二个命题是错的

Eve · 2020年06月03日

感觉解释有点混淆概念啊,题目中的long horizon是指平滑了stressed, normal等经济情形的一个较长的时间段。 你解释的近期、远期更像是在term structure上找不同的时间点,这不是一个概念吧。 题目中的underestimate,是相对stressed period而言,加入了normal period的平滑,我觉得是低估了,相关性的波动幅度和相关性的水平也大都是正相关关系,stressed时期波动大,level 也高。

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2022-11-03 15:30 1 · 回答

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2022-04-09 21:38 1 · 回答

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2022-03-22 20:31 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016070202000015 请问 Pearson correlation (ρ) is a linemeasure of pennbetween the return of two assets equto the ratio of the covarianof the asset returns to the proof their volatilities. 这个ratio of covarianto volatility 的结果不是β吗?

2021-11-09 09:57 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016070202000015 以下个人理解,老师看看是否对 1.正常时期波动小,压力时候波动大,但是波动大可能导致ρ往下走得多,也可能导致ρ往上走得多。 2.正常时期ρ小,压力时期ρ大,这个只是大部分情况来说是这样,特殊情况有可能压力时期ρ减小? 3.考虑ρ变大或者变小,还要考虑头寸的问题,例如全部投了equity,那么ρ变大反而是好的,风险会更小? 所以综上所述,statement II就是错的,对吗?

2021-05-05 11:49 2 · 回答