问题如下图：
怎么理解答案里说的“this cognitive error has aspects of both statistical an information processing errors”？Conservatism 不是belief perseverance 的一种吗，为啥和statistical 以及 information processing 又扯上关系了
王琛_品职助教 · 2021年09月21日
嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：
@smiledog
Representativeness 是重视新信息多过老信息吗？他不是套模板吗？
1
是的，两种理解不矛盾呀
Representativeness 套模板时，几乎只根据「新信息」，或者是一个「小样本」
"based almost exclusively on new information or a small sample"
2
同学可以再把我之前提到的两道真题做一下，感觉一下协会对 Representativeness 的考查
有时对于定性理解的知识点，光看知识点的定义可能还不够，建议找到具体题目（最好是真题），在题目的上下文中去理解
----------------------------------------------就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！
王琛_品职助教 · 2021年08月30日
嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：
@Yan
什么叫base rate?
1
base rate 是指，在没有新信息的情况下，事件发生的概率。"the probability of the event without the new information"
一般做题时，理解为 base information 更有助于做题。比如这道题，行为偏差章节的课后题第 3 题。base information 是 Gerber 认为，组合 15% 的比例投资于 ABC 是合适的，基于 Ludwigs 家族的参与和他们过去在类似企业中的成功
2
关于 conservatism bias，建议和 representativeness 放到一起辨析
因为两个偏差，都涉及 base information 和 new information
Representativeness 是重视 new information, 轻视 base information, 结果是采纳观点或预测时，几乎完全基于新信息
"Adopt a view or a forecast based almost exclusively on new information or a small sample."
Conservatism bias 是重视 base information，轻视 new information，保持或缓慢地更新一个观点或预测，即使有新的信息出现
"Maintain or be slow to update a view or a forecast, even when presented with new information."
3
历年真题中，有两道题考查过： [2018-4-B] , [2017-5-A] 。格式说明： [2018-4-B] ，即真题 2018 年第 4 题的 B 问
建议同学先把这两道题做一下，感觉一下协会对 conservatism 的考查。解题思路可以先看一下解析，之后经典题中老师也会讲解
----------------------------------------------虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！
smiledog · 2021年09月20日
Representativeness 是重视新信息多过老信息吗？他不是套模板吗？
企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年10月25日
同学你好，原版书上关于conservatism是这样说的：
“This bias has aspects of both statistical and information-processing errors. Academic studies have demonstrated that conservatism causes individuals to overweight initial beliefs about probabilities and outcomes and under-react to new information; they fail to modify their beliefs and actions to the extent rationally justified by the new information. In Bayesian terms, they tend to overweight the base rates and underweight the new information, resulting in revised beliefs about probabilities and outcomes that demonstrate an underreaction to the new information.”
这段话的意思是说，conservatism 具有statistical和 information-processing两方面的错误。 学术研究表明，conservatism 会使人overweight 概率和结果的最初观点，对新信息反应不足。 他们无法根据新信息合理地修改自己的观点和行为。 他们倾向于高估base rate 而低估新信息，从而导致对新信息的反应不足。
statistical error指的是overweight base rate，information processing error 指的是underweight new information， 从而导致对新信息反应不足。
我们基础班的讲义里也有讲到，在59页。
Yan · 2021年08月29日
什么叫base rate?
NO.PZ2018091702000031 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB老师好，这种题型，是否就是主观题（或essay题）？谢谢。
NO.PZ2018091702000031 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB 请问题目描述how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. 是否可以从G坚持了老观点、ignore新内容、只看支持自己的view这三方面来找example？ 回答中的example全都是再说暗示G观点错误的例子，和HOW splaye像也没关系
GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB老师这个G的之前的观点是什么啊？这个题问的是不是要找出三个佐证G坚持之前观点是错误的，也就是说G不应该坚持之前的观点？
GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. scuss how Gerber splayeconservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reang. Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbiin whipeople maintain their prior views or forecasts inaquately incorporating new information. This cognitive error haspects of both statisticaninformation-processing errors. Gerber splayeconservatism bimaintaining his prior views on Awithout aquately incorporating new information. There are severexamples of new information thweither ignoreor inaquately consire • the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials; • the scouraging results from Phase One; • the cautionary language from the CEO; an• the chief scientist’s statement incating ththere were \"major obstacles to overcome.\" Gerber sregarall the negative news ancautionary language thwreleaseABGerber faileto incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABThe impawa loss to the fountion, whicoulhave been recehGerber incorporatethe information into his analysis anaustethe fountion’s holngs of AB请问这种简答题怎么练习，感觉做的时候不知如何下手？