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wawjbng · 2019年10月21日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091702000032 [ CFA III ]

问题如下图:

老师,请问相信research setbacks是临时的基于ABC过去的成功表现,是representative bias吗

2 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年04月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


@ELynn

> 答案不是confirmation bias怎么又说是锚定?我漏看了什么吗

- 同学没有漏看哈。这道题是课后题第 4 题,答案是 confirmation bias 没问题

- 只不过 @wawjbng 同学的问题,其实对应的是课后题第 5 题的题干。所以助教之前的回答,是针对第 5 题,回答如何在 representativeness 和 anchoring bias 中,选出 anchoring bias 哈

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年10月22日

单看这句话好像是representativeness, 但是要结合着上下文和题目来看。这句题干对应的题目是课后题第5题,品职题库号码PZ2018091702000033. 题目问Gerbera focus在CHF80这个数字上表现了什么偏差。

而这句话的后面紧接着就提到了锚定数字"CHF 80",所以是anchoring表现得更明显一些。

anchoring强调一个初始值锚定数字, 之后虽然有新的信息也不根据新信息作出调整,还是锚定在这个数字上。

本题中说虽然有setback, 但是Gerber看了report后没有根据新信息作出调整,还是把期望锚定在“CHF80”这个数字上,因此是anchoring bias。

题中在有确切的数字时,通常判断为achoring bias的可能性居多。

ELynn · 2021年04月05日

答案不是confirmation bias怎么又说是锚定?我漏看了什么吗

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NO.PZ2018091702000032 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. termine whether Gerber splayeconfirmation biwhen reviewing the chief scientist’s article. Justify your answer with one reason. Gerber splayeconfirmation biwhen reviewing the chief scientist’s article。 Confirmation bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbias. Invials who exhibit this bilook for confirmation of their belief anignore any information whicontracts their belief. Gerber splayeconfirmation biselectively placing more weight on the portion of the statement \"the ProjeM tehseen positive signs thtreatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable\" in the article, even though the positive results mentionein the article appeareto a generstatement. Gerber ignorethe comment on the major obstacles whithe tehencounterebecause it wcontrary to his belief in ProjeM. 答案里面 the lays in initiation of Phase Two trials 就是原文的ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twi答案里面 the scouraging results from Phase One 就是原文的 Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug 那考试中是否可以直接COPY原文么?

2021-08-29 16:59 1 · 回答

GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Soon after cing to holthe stock, Gerber rea article ABC’s chief scientist in whicertain scientific results from ProjeM are taile a conclusion, the article states: \"Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the ProjeM tehseen positive signs tha treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable.\" While Gerber hfficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassureafter reang the conclung statement. Toy, Aannounces the news thit will no longer pursue ProjeM, citing early signs of failure of the project. a result of the announcement, the stopriops 50 percent. Gerber is stunne He reviews the company’s history annotes thAhbeen up front about its struggles to solve the ProjeM issues. Gerber now realizes thhe hbeen ignoring all the signs anfeels a tremenus regret for not having solthe fountion’s investment in Aearlier. termine whether Gerber splayeconfirmation biwhen reviewing the chief scientist’s article. Justify your answer with one reason. Gerber splayeconfirmation biwhen reviewing the chief scientist’s article。 Confirmation bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseveranbias. Invials who exhibit this bilook for confirmation of their belief anignore any information whicontracts their belief. Gerber splayeconfirmation biselectively placing more weight on the portion of the statement \"the ProjeM tehseen positive signs thtreatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable\" in the article, even though the positive results mentionein the article appeareto a generstatement. Gerber ignorethe comment on the major obstacles whithe tehencounterebecause it wcontrary to his belief in ProjeM. 应该是confirmation bias,因为客户只是选择性的相信有利的信息

2019-11-21 10:01 1 · 回答