每天都想出坑的铁头娃 · 2019年09月27日
* 问题详情，请 查看题干
问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
首先c是凑选项的。纠结A和B就好。
我觉得选A没问题。
羊群效应，简单说交人云亦云，随大流，这里是投资决策委员会，所以是“群体”做出的决策。
Confirmation Bias我感觉更强调“刻意”收集与自身信念一致的消息，且“不自觉”的忽视与自己信念相违背的信息。如果是confirmation bias的人，他心里会先有个belief，再notice and seeking支持自己belief的new information。显然Patel只是个从众者，他心里的belief是基于投资决策委员会支持与否，所以此时此刻其实他没有自己的belief，说是跟风的无可厚非。
综上，我不敢苟同备注的解释。
企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年09月28日
这道题选A选B都可以。首先，A肯定是对的，herding表现的挺明显的。
这样备注是因为很多同学纠结为什么不选B，老师说如果选B也是说的通的，因为这道题和201511190100000405， 也就是这道大题的第5小题Johnson的bias那道题比较像，只不过johnson是寻找另一个分析师的支持，Patel是寻找committee的支持。至于你说的自己的belief, 可以把Patel自己的low risk tolerance当作他的belief.
其实选A比选B更适合一些，因为A太明显了，一般说到"unanimous support"的题目都是social proof/herding, 考试时选择最明显的，但是B也能解释。
所以李老师说这道题出的不太好，A和B都能说的通，不用特别纠结。
NO.PZ201511190100000406问题如下 Patel’s comment in his risk toleranquestionnaire regarng the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize whibias?A.Sociproof.B.Confirmation bias.C.Gambler’s fallacy.A is correct.Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information.备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。解析是想说confirmation和sociproof和herng是同一个意思，还是后两者是同一个意思但和第一个无关？
NO.PZ201511190100000406问题如下Patel’s comment in his risk toleranquestionnaire regarng the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize whibias?A.Sociproof.B.Confirmation bias.C.Gambler’s fallacy.A is correct.Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information.备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。这道题我以为是选择没有体现出的偏差。那从委员会确实是sociproof ，从个人确实是confirmation 。那没有体现出的却是赌徒效应啊。看了其他的问题讲解，那是不是以后不管看到啥样的背景，不管三七二十一，只要是投资委员会，就是sociproof？题目的背景说的是，只要投委会认定，投资者的风险容忍度就会提高，那应该问是存在什么样的偏差？这当时是sociproof。那什么叫存在偏差，还没识别？这是啥逻辑？照这样，无论识别不识别的出，那都是sociproof啊，那题目fail有啥意义？
NO.PZ201511190100000406 问题如下 Patel’s comment in his risk toleranquestionnaire regarng the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize whibias? A.Sociproof. B.Confirmation bias. C.Gambler’s fallacy. A is correct.Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information.备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。 备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。老师1。可以翻译下题目吗？是说他最可能有的但是被他fail（忽视）了的bias吗？题目中有依据话反应了confirmation bias，但是其他这个都没有出现，为什么不选B啊？
NO.PZ201511190100000406 问题如下 Patel’s comment in his risk toleranquestionnaire regarng the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize whibias? A.Sociproof. B.Confirmation bias. C.Gambler’s fallacy. A is correct.Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information.备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。 sociproof confirmation bias都是委员会会犯的错。只有赌徒谬误不会，所以选C。
NO.PZ201511190100000406 Confirmation bias. Gambler’s fallacy. A is correct. Sociproof is a belief in whiinvials are biaseto follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee incates ththey msusceptible to a sociproof bias. The committee meets to scuss anbate easecurity anthen votes on whiwill approve Committee members mwrongly favor the jument of others, often without being fully aware ththey are ing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group cision process es not encourage private information helinvicommittee members to sharefully with others before a cision is ma, the cision mfail to combine the collective wism of the group. There is no evinththis committee encourages private information. 备注这道题出的不太好，原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资，他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”，这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。sociproof和herng是同义词，羊群效应，是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误，比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面，认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高，但事实上，抛出反面的概率仍为50%，Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结。为什么这两道题一道答案是confirmation bi一道是sociproof？两道题在题干中叙述几乎是一样的啊，都说只要是专业的投资团队认同这个投资那么这个invial的risk toleran就会提升。难道两个题答案不都应该是confirmation bias么？还有想请问q6与q5在题干里哪里叙述的不同以至于q6不选confirmation bias而选sociproof？
