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johnny · 2019年09月26日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017092702000009

问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:


请问老师,如果是后付年金的模式,那么应该是第五季度末付款,算出来PV应该是第五季初也就是第四季末的PV,答案公式应该改为PV=133.33*(1+0.015)的负五次方,和答案不符。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2019年09月26日

同学你好,

这道题是后付年金的模式,也是N=5的时候付第一笔年金,这些你理解的都没问题。但需要注意的是,计算永续年金的时候,PV是算到前一期也就是N=4时期的。也就是计算出来的133.33的时间点是N=4.

这里面涉及到一个非常之重要的概念,就是永续年金折现的时候,虽然公式的形式是P=D/r,但是这个D实际上是D1的概念。只是因为所有的D都相同,才不显示角标。

换句话说,后续永续年金的第一笔现金流发生在N=5,那么这个N=5的Dividend就相当于刚刚上面提到的“D1”,折现算出来的PV是折到N=4时刻的,所以继续往前折现的时候才是-4次方。

所以就这道题本身而言,需要掌握的就是永续年金的折现时间点,及实际公式其实是P或PV=D1/r。

但这个理念其实应用更多的是在权益里面,往往会给你current dividend也就是D0的概念,但是实际上真正折现时候要用的是D1,也就是forecasted dividend。无论是永续年金,还是DDM模型都是如此,所以这个折现用的是D1而不是D0的理念非常重要,需要掌握。

加油

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