问题如下图:我看下了之前的解答,需要用到计算器,但是我好像能凭感觉看到1和2有点正相关的意思,那就是分散效果差,我想问下这类题是一定要用计算器吗,可不可以不用计算器来确定corelation啊?
选项:
A.
B.
C.
解释:
Wendy_品职助教 · 2019年06月19日
解题思路:
首先要看懂题干的表格,一共有3个资产。根据题意,一共有三种情况,每种情况发生概率相同,即发生概率都是1/3。每个资产在不同情况下会产生不同的收益。比如资产1,在第一种情况下,产生的收益率为12%;资产2,在第一种情况下,产生的收益率也是12%;资产3,在第一种情况下,产生的收益率是0%。观察表格发现,三种资产产生的收益率不外乎12%,6%,0%,这正是题目巧妙的地方,所以正如表格最后一列所示,这三种资产的预期收益率都是6%(=1/3*12%+1/3*6%+1/3*0%)。题目问的是哪对资产是完全负相关,即要找哪两对资产收益率的相关性系数= -1。
解答这道题有两种方法:
一是定性分析。相关性系数反映的是两组数据变化的同步性。如果一组数据逐渐变大,同时另一组数据逐渐变小,那么这两组数据相关性就是负的。观察表格中的数字,比较明显可以看出的是资产2和资产3的收益率是完全负相关的。
outcome 1→outcome 2→outcome 3时,资产2的收益率12%→6%→0,逐渐变小;
outcome 1→outcome 2→outcome 3时,资产3的收益率0→6%→12%,逐渐变大。
二是利用计算器求两组资产之间的相关系数。以A选项资产1 & 资产2的收益率相关性系数计算为例,打开金融计算器:
【2nd】【7】进入data模式,首先清除历史记录【2nd】【CLR WORK】
依次输入两组数据:X01=12【↓】Y01=12【↓】X02=0【↓】Y02=6【↓】X03=6【↓】Y03=0【↓】;然后[2nd][8]进入STAT模式,一直按向下的箭头,直到出现r,r=0.5。说明两组数据的相关性系数=0.5。
同理,可以计算出资产1&资产3收益率的相关性系数为-0.5,资产2&资产3收益率的相关性系数为-1。
易错点分析:这道题目有两个难点。首先,有些同学在读题上就遇到了困难,没有读懂表格是什么意思。其次,不知道如何用计算器计算correlation。
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