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haohao · 2017年05月23日

Level 2 - 2016 Mock Afternoon Session No.54 - Alternative

Why is B correct, what does 'normal contangoed' mean? 谢谢

• insurance perspective, in which hedgers hold commodity inventories and seek to mitigate price risk by buying commodity futures;

• hedging pressure hypothesis, in which investors will receive a risk premium that is a positive excess return for going short in a 'normal contangoed' commodity futures market; and
• theory of storage, which predicts a direct relationship between the level of inventories and the convenience yield."


54. Which of Davidson's descriptions of the futures return models is most likely correct?

A. The description of the theory of storage
B. The description of the hedging pressure hypothesis
C. The description of the insurance perspective


Answer = B
The hedging pressure hypothesis states that investors will receive a risk premium that is a positive excess return for going short in a "normal contangoed" commodity futures market. The insurance perspective assumes that hedgers hold long positions in the underlying commodity and short positions in the futures to hedge their risk. The theory of storage predicts an inverse relationship between the level of inventories and the convenience yield.

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竹子 · 2017年05月23日

这是2016Mock 大宗这部分今年是换了参考书的,所以有的说法会有一点改变。

Normal Contango是之前书上的一个小概念,是 Future price>E(spot price in the future),有一个期望的概念在。现在书中已经没有了。

至于hedging pressure hypothesis的说法也稍许有点不同。现在的考纲强调供需关系决定市场是contango or backwardation

但以前的书上将这个理论理解成Insurance Theory 的延伸,意思是面包师傅需要面粉,所以会Long面粉的期货,那么 就需要给Short方一定的好处,对于Short方来说,期货价格越高越好,所以会形成Contango,此时short方有额外收益 。

所以不用太纠结这一题

haohao · 2017年05月23日

非常感谢!

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