问一道题：NO.PZ2016082405000042

NO.PZ2016082405000042 I 没有说清楚是边际违约概率还是总的违约概率吧？

我就想问问 fault probability of a counterparty unr a risk-neutrmeasure怎么算，ppT就说了CVA 的两种方法嘛，难道是YTM-rf=p1-rr）？

所以statement i里面的future不是指的期货，指的是未来？

II only. Both I anII. Neither I nor II. Future fault probability will likely crease over time, especially for perio finto the future. This is because of the higher likelihooththe fault will have alrea occurresome earlier point. In computing the fault probability of a counterparty unr a risk- neutrmeasure, one nee to compute the theoreticmarket-implieprobability; the actufault probability applies unr a re(historical) measure. 关于I的结论，上课时说过违约概率曲线是非单调递减函数，不是所有的违约概率都应该随着时间增加而增加吗？还是因为不知道它起初是投资级还是投机级，所以I错了？

     答案讲解中的关于I的讲解，和助教之前说的不同，能否重新。助教历史对于投资级别的，越往后违约概率增加越快；投机级别，越慢。