问题如下图：
请问为什么这个不是overconfidence bias中的prediction overconfidence bias? 他的预测中含有精确的数字
Shimin_CPA税法主讲、CFA教研 · 2019年02月24日
有两个原因，一是从prediction overconfidence的定义出发，prediction overconfidence指的是预测的置信区间太窄，而不是说预测为一个确切的数字。如果有确切的数字，通常判断为achoring bias的可能性居多。
第二个是从mitigate这个词判断，可以被mitigate的是cognitive error，比如Anchoring And Adjustment；对于overconfidence，它属于emotional bias，是很难消除的，所以通常会用accomendate/adopt这样的词。
NO.PZ2018091702000033问题如下 LuGerber recently became the chief investment officer for the Luigs Family Charity, a misize private fountion in SwitzerlanGerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Incate whibiis illustrateGerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. scuss how Gerber coulhave mitigateits impact. Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is an information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — an \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber should consciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"Am I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. 1、跳出这道题出在processing bias的部分，这个人是不是也犯了confirmation bias？因为他一直在忽略negative information，坚持认为实验会成功，不断在自我加强他的判断。2、另外，如果在考试中，光看题面的话，感觉也不好区分是belief perseveranbi还是 processing bias啊，感觉犯了多种bias，脑回路对不上出题人的思路咋办
NO.PZ2018091702000033 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Incate whibiis illustrateGerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. scuss how Gerber coulhave mitigateits impact. Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber shoulconsciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. CHF 80是什么指数？在前文中并没有一开始提到这个数字，而是在最后一句提到了。怎么会是anchoring呢？
Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber shoulconsciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. 理解确切数字选anchoring，可以mitigate所以不选overconfince。但是文中有提到because of ABC’s past success with projects,是否也可以理解有部分过去经验推断representativeness？
GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Incate whibiis illustrateGerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. scuss how Gerber coulhave mitigateits impact. Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber shoulconsciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. 为什么这道题的答案不是representativeness bias
Anchoring bias不是指最初锚定一个错误的数字，后来在错误的数字上下波动吗？题目问的是Gerber认为最后股价能到达CHF80是什么bias。哪里体现了了最初锚定的是CHF 80呢？还是感觉是overconfince.