问一道题：NO.PZ201710100100000305 第5小题

NO.PZ201710100100000305 问题如下 5. Whiof the following changes in market contions best supports Carlisle’s comment regarng the equilibrium P/E for Country #3? A.increase in the equity risk premium B.A crease in uncertainty about future inflation C.A crease in expectation of future reearnings growth B is correct. Stoprices are a function of expectecash flows scounteinflation expectations, the uncertainty of future inflation, anthe equity risk premium, among other factors. Holng all else equal, a cline in the uncertainty of future inflation woulresult in lower scount rates anhigher valuations. This result woulsupport a higher equilibrium P/E, thus justifying Country #3’s current trailing P/E being higher thits historicaverage.考点P/E ratio解析题目问的是哪个因素可以导致P/E变大。其中P是由未来现金流折现求和所得。A，equity risk premium增加，导致P/E中的P减小。因为equity risk premium使得折现率变大，分母变大，P减小。uncertainty about future inflation减小，折现率变小，分母变小，P变大，所以P/E变大。reearnings growth减小，可以从两个角度考虑一是reearnings growth减小导致未来现金流减小，分子变小，P变小，所以P/E变小。二是Golrn Growth Mol，P=/(r-g)，分母变大，P减小，所以 P/E变小。 我是想growth rate下降了，earnings就下降，那 P/E 不就是变大了吗？B的没有太理解，对未来通胀的不确定性下降了，为何P更大了？是因为不确定性下降了，资产更值钱了吗，我这样理解可以吗？

题目也没说P是scounteexpectecash flow 我觉得P就是current market Price呀， 然后选earning 低的就好了呀（ future earning低，也就是leang PE 高 ？）？

还有一个角度是，题目提到recession.应该会跟对未来经济增长预期更有关系而不是直接可以判定对未来的通胀不确定性就下降了？抛开原文b没问题但是联系上原文这个怎么理解？还有我另一条对于c答案的理解。先放下goln growth rate在这的运用，能否直接用R49来解读一下？谢谢    

the crease of E(future reearning growth) will result in a crease of interest rate, whisubsequently lowering the nominator a whole then pushing up the P, therefore, P ratio increase我是从这个角度理解的错在哪？谢谢    

不太理解该题的涵义，题干是说目前PE高估，预期将来进入衰退，那么PE都将下降，问题中说支撑她这个观点的是哪个，C不应该是对的吗？未来盈利增长率下降，PE不是会下降吗？为什么不选C