问一道题：NO.PZ201512020800000204 第4小题

NO.PZ201512020800000204 问题如下 4. The best response to Question 1 is ththe policies will: A.have no impact. B.leto currenappreciation. C.leto currenpreciation. B is correct.The currenis likely to appreciate. The emerging market country hboth a restrictive monetary polianrestrictive fiscpoliunr contions of low capitmobility. Low capitmobility incates thinterest rate changes incemonetary anfiscpoliwill not cause large changes in capitflows. Implementation of restrictive policies shoulresult in improvement in the tra balance, whiwill result in currenappreciation.考点Mull-Fleming mol的经典考法，要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。解析比如这道题，在资本限制流动的情况下，紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率，吸引资本流入，但是由于资本账户是受到管制的，资本流出规模非常有限，因此本币小幅度升值。一方面，紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长，国民收入减少，进口减少，贸易顺差扩大，本币升值。另一方面，紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降，资金流出，但由于资本账户管制，流出的资金有限，本币贬值幅度很小，最终结果就是在资本管制下紧缩的财政政策导致本币升值。 这个考点是否删掉了

NO.PZ201512020800000204 问题如下 4. The best response to Question 1 is ththe policies will: A.have no impact. B.leto currenappreciation. C.leto currenpreciation. B is correct.The currenis likely to appreciate. The emerging market country hboth a restrictive monetary polianrestrictive fiscpoliunr contions of low capitmobility. Low capitmobility incates thinterest rate changes incemonetary anfiscpoliwill not cause large changes in capitflows. Implementation of restrictive policies shoulresult in improvement in the tra balance, whiwill result in currenappreciation.考点Mull-Fleming mol的经典考法，要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。解析比如这道题，在资本限制流动的情况下，紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率，吸引资本流入，但是由于资本账户是受到管制的，资本流出规模非常有限，因此本币小幅度升值。一方面，紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长，国民收入减少，进口减少，贸易顺差扩大，本币升值。另一方面，紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降，资金流出，但由于资本账户管制，流出的资金有限，本币贬值幅度很小，最终结果就是在资本管制下紧缩的财政政策导致本币升值。 1、扩张性的财政政策+扩张性的货币政策 导致货币贬值2、紧缩性的财政政策+紧缩性的货币政策 导致货币升值3、扩张性的财政政策+紧缩性的货币政策 不确定4、紧缩性的扩张政策+扩张性的财政政策 不确定我这个理解对不对？

NO.PZ201512020800000204 问题如下 Connor Wagener, a stunt the University of Canterbury in New Zealan hbeen asketo prepare a presentation on foreign exchange rates for his InternationBusiness course. Wagener ha basic unrstanng of exchange rates, but woullike a practitioner’s perspective, anhe harrangeinterview with currentrar HannMcFaen. ring the interview, Wagener asks McFaen:“Coulyou explain whives exchange rates? I’m curious to why our New Zealanllwaffectethe Europecrisis in 2011 anwhother factors impait.”In response, McFaen begins with a generscussion of exchange rates. She notes thinternationparity contions illustrate how exchange rates are linketo expecteinflation, interest rate fferences, anforwarexchange rates well current anexpectefuture spot rates. McFaen states:Statement 1 “Fortunately, the internationparity contion most relevant for FX carry tras es not always hol”McFaen continues her scussion:“FX carry trars go long (i.e. buy) high-yielcurrencies anfuntheir position shorting, this borrowing in, low-yielcurrencies. Unfortunately, crashes in currenvalues coccur whicreate financicrises trars unwintheir positions. For example, in 2008, the New Zealanllwnegatively impactewhen highly leveragecarry tras were unwoun In aition to investors, consumers anbusiness owners calso affecurrenexchange rates through their impaon their country’s balanof payments. For example, if New Zealanconsumers purchase more goo from China thNew Zealanbusinesses sell to ChinNew Zealanwill run a tra account ficit with China.”McFaen further explains:Statement 2 “A tra surplus will tento cause the currenof the country in surplus to appreciate while a ficit will cause currenpreciation. Exchange rate changes will result in immeate austments in the prices of tragoo well in the manfor imports anexports. These changes will immeately correthe tra imbalance.”McFaen next aresses the influenof monetary anfiscpolion exchange rates:“Countries also exert significant influenon exchange rates through both the initimix of their fiscanmonetary policies, analso subsequent austments to those policies. Various mols have been velopeto intify how these policies affeexchange rates. The Munll-Fleming mol aresses how changes in both fiscanmonetary policies affeinterest rates anultimately exchange rates in the short-term.”McFaen scribes monetary mols stating:Statement 3 “Monetary mols of exchange rate termination focus on the effects of inflation, prilevel changes, anrisk premium austments.”McFaen continues her scussion:“So far, we’ve toucheon balanof payments anmonetary policy. The portfolio-balanmol aresses the impacts of sustainefiscpolion exchange rates. I must take a client call, but will return shortly. In the meantime, here is some relevant literature on the mols I mentionealong with a couple of questions for you to consir:Question 1 Assume emerging market (EM) country hrestrictive monetary anfiscpolicies unr low capitmobility contions. Are these policies likely to leto currenappreciation, currenpreciation, or to have no impact?Question 2 Assume a velopemarket () country hexpansive fiscpoliunr high capitmobility contions. Why is its currenmost likely to preciate in the long-run unr integrateMunll-Fleming anportfolio-balanapproach?”Upon her return, Wagener anMcFaen review the questions. McFaen notes thcapitflows chave a significant impaon exchange rates anhave contributeto currencrises in both EM an countries. She explains thcentrbanks, like the Reserve Bank of New Zealan use FX market intervention a tool to manage exchange rates. McFaen states:Statement 4 “Some stues have founthEM centrbanks tento more effective in using exchange rate intervention th centrbanks, primarily because of one important factor.”McFaen continues her scussion:Statement 5 “I mentionethcapitinflows coulcause a currencrisis, leaving funmanagers with significant losses. In the perioleang up to a currencrisis, I woulprethaffectecountry’s:Prection 1 foreign exchange reserves will increase.Prection 2 bromoney growth in nominanreterms will increase.Prection 3 reexchange rate will substantially higher thits melevel ring tranquil perio.After the interview, McFaen agrees to meet the following week to scuss more recent events on the New Zealanllar.4. The best response to Question 1 is ththe policies will: A.have no impact. B.leto currenappreciation. C.leto currenpreciation. B is correct.The currenis likely to appreciate. The emerging market country hboth a restrictive monetary polianrestrictive fiscpoliunr contions of low capitmobility. Low capitmobility incates thinterest rate changes incemonetary anfiscpoliwill not cause large changes in capitflows. Implementation of restrictive policies shoulresult in improvement in the tra balance, whiwill result in currenappreciation.考点Mull-Fleming mol的经典考法，要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。解析比如这道题，在资本限制流动的情况下，紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率，吸引资本流入，但是由于资本账户是受到管制的，资本流出规模非常有限，因此本币小幅度升值。一方面，紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长，国民收入减少，进口减少，贸易顺差扩大，本币升值。另一方面，紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降，资金流出，但由于资本账户管制，流出的资金有限，本币贬值幅度很小，最终结果就是在资本管制下扩张的财政政策导致本币升值。 最后解析的结论，应该是紧缩，而不是扩张吧

NO.PZ201512020800000204 问题如下 4. The best response to Question 1 is ththe policies will: A.have no impact. B.leto currenappreciation. C.leto currenpreciation. B is correct.The currenis likely to appreciate. The emerging market country hboth a restrictive monetary polianrestrictive fiscpoliunr contions of low capitmobility. Low capitmobility incates thinterest rate changes incemonetary anfiscpoliwill not cause large changes in capitflows. Implementation of restrictive policies shoulresult in improvement in the tra balance, whiwill result in currenappreciation.考点Mull-Fleming mol的经典考法，要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。解析比如这道题，在资本限制流动的情况下，紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率，吸引资本流入，但是由于资本账户是受到管制的，资本流出规模非常有限，因此本币小幅度升值。一方面，紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长，国民收入减少，进口减少，贸易顺差扩大，本币升值。另一方面，紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降，资金流出，但由于资本账户管制，流出的资金有限，本币贬值幅度很小，最终结果就是在资本管制下扩张的财政政策导致本币升值。 老师所以在low mobility的时候，财政政策的影响是考虑经常账户的影响？资本账户的影响可以忽略？

上课讲Munll-Fleming模型对于紧缩的货币政策和财政政策对汇率的影响不是下面这样么 1）对于capitaccount a)紧缩的货币政策导致本币小幅度升值 b）紧缩的财政政策导致本币小幅度贬值-----最终capitaccount对汇率影响不确定 2）对于current account 紧缩的财政政策会引起本币升值 但由于本身capitaccount的影响大于current account，所以最后的汇率变动结果不能确定 为什么这个题就是确定升值？