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Carolyne · 2025年06月30日

tactical decision

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NO.PZ201601050100001203

问题如下:

Recommend the trading strategy C&M should implement. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

Given C&M’s research conclusion and the IPS constraints, the currency team should under-hedge Bhatt’s portfolio by selling the US dollar forward against the Indian rupee in a forward contract (or contracts) at no less than a 75% hedge ratio of the portfolio’s USD10,000,000 market value. By under-hedging the portfolio relative to the “neutral” (100% hedge ratio) benchmark, the team seeks to add incremental value on the basis of its view that the US dollar will appreciate against the Indian rupee while maintaining compliance with the IPS.

Since the Indian rupee is assumed to depreciate against the US dollar, a 100% hedge ratio would largely eliminate any alpha opportunity. However, a hedge ratio greater than 75% but less than 100% (as dictated by the plus or minus 25% versus neutral IPS constraint) provides the opportunity to capture currency return in the expected US dollar appreciation against the Indian rupee.

中文解析:

本题中本来担心美元贬值的,应该完全hedge

但现在预期美元升值,是对我们有利的,因此就可以降低hedge比例的情况了,而可以降低到的最低点就是在100%hedge的基础上下降25%,就是75%

本题说利率差,通胀率差相对稳定,为何不考虑短期交易策略来获取alpha?

比如carry trade, volatility trading?

carry trade 是说汇率变动率和利率差还没有达到稳定,所以短期可有机会。

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2025年06月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


最后的问题是C&M would like to exploit the perceived alpha opportunity using forward contracts on the USD10,000,000 Bhatt portfolio.


CM希望在远期合约对冲这个步骤上 进行一些调整,以此寻求alpha。团队的核心观点是“US dollar will appreciate relative to the Indian rupee.”, 结合最后的问题,如何调整forward呢,那就是可以Under hedge, 只需要75%的对冲就可以了,而且“ a range of plus or minus 25% from the neutral position”这也是题目前面允许的对冲调整范围。


你说的carry trade当然也是一个方法,但是和题目最后的问题关系不大,写上当然也可以,但是不算核心得分点。

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