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Carolyne · 2025年06月26日

recency bias

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201805280100000105

问题如下:

5. Koval’s attitude toward emerging markets equity reflects which of the following behavioral biases?

选项:

A.

Hindsight bias

B.

Availability bias

C.

Illusion of control

解释:

B is correct.

Availability bias is an information- processing bias in which people take a mental shortcut when estimating the probability of an outcome based on how easily the outcome comes to mind. On the basis of the losses incurred by his family trust during the recent economic crisis, Koval expresses a strong preference for avoiding the emerging markets equity asset class. Such behavior is consistent with availability bias, where investors who personally experience an adverse event are likely to assign a higher probability to such an event occurring again.

考点:behavioral biases in asset allocation

解析:Availability bias指的是用最容易想到的信息做投资决策,没有全面地分析所有信息。Koval基于家族信托近期遭受的巨额亏损来作出判断,因此体现的是Availability bias。

请问这道题如果有recency bias 选项的话,选哪个呢?

1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2025年06月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如果这道题有 recency bias选项,仍然应该选 availability bias。

Koval 因家族信托在近期经济危机中遭受的亏损而认定新兴市场股票风险过高,其决策依据是记忆中容易唤起的特定负面经历,这属于依赖易获取的信息做判断,符合可得性偏差 “基于脑海中易想到的信息而非全面分析” 的核心特征。

而近期偏差侧重过度关注近期事件、忽视长期数据,题干未体现 Koval 对长期信息的忽略,更多是因特定事件的深刻记忆影响决策,故仍应选可得性偏差。

representative bias和recency bias这两个名词是可以通用的,表达的是一个意思。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!