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Nagi · 2025年06月26日

如何选择调哪个值?

NO.PZ2025022501000067

问题如下:

The introduction of environmental regulation has significant negative effects on a company's competitors but no impact on the company. The most appropriate way to reflect this in a discounted cash flow analysis of the company is to:

选项:

A.increase the discount rate.

B.increase projected cash flows.

C.decrease the terminal growth rate.

解释:

B is correct because adjustments to the discount rate or terminal growth rate can be based on individual company factors or on a country or sector basis. For example, all coal producers and coal-powered utilities might be judged to have higher climate-related risk and thus higher discount rates. Similarly, companies with strong ESG practices could be seen as less risky, allowing for a lower discount rate. A higher (lower) discount rate leads to, all else equal, a lower (higher) estimate of intrinsic value. Therefore, to capture the opportunity from weaker competitors, the analyst would likely decrease, not increase, the discount rate to reflect the company's lower risk from an improved market position or power.

想问在某个情境下,如何判断应该调整现金流、折现率以及永续增长率中的哪个值?三者间是否也存在不能同时调整的情况?最好能分别举例说明

1 个答案

净净_品职助教 · 2025年06月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


可以参考一下下面的表格:

1. 现金流调整:ESG影响直接体现为收入或成本改变

  • 适用情境:具体金额或比例可测算,影响可量化。
  • 示例 1:负面影响:公司必须安装污染处理设施,未来 5 年每年增加 1,000 万运营支出 → 降低未来现金流
  • 示例 2:正面影响:公司新推绿色节能产品,因环保趋势而销量上涨 → 提高未来营收和利润

注意:不要在同一风险上重复调整其他变量(见后文的“避免双重计量”)

2. 折现率调整:ESG风险或机会影响企业整体的系统性风险或资本成本

  • 适用情境:ESG因素会改变市场对企业的风险感知或资本成本。
  • 示例 1:正面影响:企业是绿色能源龙头,获得绿色贷款利率优惠、风险暴露较低 → 降低折现率(更高估值)
  • 示例 2:负面影响:化石能源企业面临行业监管趋严、未来政策不确定性 → 提高折现率
  • 适用于行业或市场系统性ESG因素

3. 永续增长率调整:ESG因素影响公司长期可持续增长潜力

  • 适用情境:ESG能力/风险显著改变公司长期发展战略或潜力
  • 示例 1:正面影响:公司 ESG 战略优秀,受到消费者偏好推动,长期市占率有望持续增长 → 提高终端增长率
  • 示例 2:负面影响:公司 ESG 声誉受损、人才流失严重,限制长期扩张 → 下调终端增长率
  • 适用于评估长期影响


是否可以同时调整多个变量?可以,但需避免“双重计量”:若 ESG 风险已体现在现金流中,不应再因相同风险上调折现率,否则估值被重复惩罚。

例如:公司 A 预计未来每年要支付 $1,000 万碳税,不能既降低现金流,又因为碳税上调折现率。因为风险已反映在数值上,没必要再上调资本成本,除非碳税的不确定性也很大,才合理增加风险溢价。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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