NO.PZ2023032703000103
问题如下：
Jean Fitzpatrick is a senior director
where he specializes in the corporate and sovereign bond markets. Yield spreads
have recently narrowed for corporate and sovereign bonds, but Fitzpatrick still
believes the economic recovery will continue and limit any material widening
from current levels.
Fitzpatrick observes that bond and CDS spreads in the energy sector
are relatively wide compared to other investment-grade sectors. Fitzpatrick
informs Charlie Fontaine, head of trading, that he will allocate $5 million to
the energy sector and plans to exit the trade in one year.
Fontaine provides Fitzpatrick with market levels on CDS contracts in
Exhibit 1 for Regal Energy, an investment grade company in the energy sector
that is domiciled in Brazil. Fontaine suggests that Fitzpatrick pursue a
rolldown strategy using either 5-year or 10- year CDS contracts and assumes
spreads remain constant over the next year. Fontaine notes that the 9-year CDS
has an effective spread duration of 8.0 but that its spread is not currently
quoted. All Regal Energy CDS have a 1.0% coupon
A. Describe the rolldown strategy most likely to
generate the highest excess returns given the spreads provided in Exhibit 1. Calculate
the total notional return of the rolldown strategy over one year.
选项：
解释：
Correct Answer:
Selling ten-year CDS protection is most likely to generate the highest excess returns based on the market levels in Exhibit 1 and the assumption that spreads remain constant.
Selling protection will provide long exposure to the credit, and he is most likely to select the ten-year contract because it provides for additional price appreciation compared to the five-year contract.
The total notional return would be approximately $134,932.
The total return on the strategy will be the sum of the coupon income and price appreciation over the one-year holding period multiplied by the notional position.
Start by calculating the CDS ten-year price at purchase:
CDS Price ≈ 1 + (Fixed coupon - CDS spread) × EffSpreadDurCDS
CDS 10-year Price = 0.9125 = 1 + (1% - 2.00%) × 8.75
Next, calculate the CDS nine-year price. To find the nine-year spread (assuming spreads remain constant over the one-year period) interpolate using the weighted average of five-year and ten-year spreads:
5-year CDS weight = 20% = (10 - 9) / (10 - 5)
10-year CDS weight = 80% = (1 – 5-year weight)
CDS 9-year spread = weight of 5 × CDS 5-year spread + weight of 10 × CDS 10-year spread
CDS 9-year spread = 1.90% = 20% × 1.50% + 80% × 2.00%
CDS 9-year price = 0.928 = 1 + (1% – 1.90%) × 8.0
Price appreciation = (CDS 9-year price – CDS 10-year price) / CDS 10-year price
Price appreciation = 1.6986% = (0.928 – 0.9125) / 0.9125
Coupon income = 1.00% (1.0% investment grade coupon for the year)
Total return = 2.6986% = 1.0% + 1.6986%
Total notional return = $134,930 = 2. 6986% × $5,000,000
这是我算的：
coupon income=1%x5m=50,000
spread of nine year=190
rolldown return=(0.928-0.9125)x5m=77500
total return=127500
为什么和答案差这么多
