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jessieli · 2025年06月19日

宽松的货币政策不是会导致利率下降吗

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

NO.PZ2018091901000052

问题如下：

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 1 Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight.

Based on Observation 1, fiscal and monetary policies in Country Y will most likely lead to:

选项：

A.

low nominal rates.

B.

high nominal rates.

C.

either high or low nominal rates.

解释：

C is correct.

Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight. With this combination of persistently loose and tight policies, the impact could lead to higher or lower nominal rates (typically labeled as mid-nominal rates).

解析:

Y国的货币政策持续宽松（通胀上升），财政政策持续紧缩（真实利率下降）。由于持续的宽松和紧缩政策(货币和财政政策并不一致)，其影响可能导致名义利率上升或下降(通常被称为中间名义利率)。

因此只有C选项正确。

之前讲过，宽松的货币政策，央行撒钱，市场上钱多了，利率就下降了。那么再搭配上紧缩的财政政策：政府减少投资，资金需求减少，利率下降，两个叠加不应该是lower rate吗

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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2025年06月19日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


关于“货币政策和财政政策联合作用”的说法，考纲改的比较频繁。

改版前，原版书上说，货币政策影响的是短期利率，而财政政策影响的是长期利率降。

最新的考纲修改后才变成了货币政策影响通胀，而财政政策影响真实利率。

而且这个说法仅仅在“货币政策和财政政策联合作用”适用。因为只有在这部分把利率拆成了真实利率和通胀两部分，并且假定了货币政策仅仅对应通胀。

这是一个特例，其他一般场合都是适用宽松货币政策对应利率下降这个结论，因为货币供给增加，货币需求不变的前提下，货币的价格利率就会下降（其实就是假设真实利率下降幅度会高于通胀上涨幅度）。



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