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。。 · 2025年06月19日

关于关键值和置信区间之间有点不明白

NO.PZ2024120401000068

问题如下:

We regressed a security's returns, S(i), against market index returns, M(i), in order to estimate the security's beta according to R(i) = intercept + beta*M(i). The sample size is 48. The regression output is: R(i) = 0.020 + 1.080*M(i). The standard error of the intercept, SE(intercept), is 0.030; the standard error of the beta, SE(beta), is 0.050. The two-sided null hypothesis is that the security's beta is one; i.e., the null is beta = 1.0. Can we reject the null at 95% confidence?

选项:

A.

No, the t-statistic is 1.60

B.

No, the t-statistic is 21.60

C.

Yes, the t-statistic is 5.85

D.

Yes, the t-statistic is 21.60

解释:

t-statistic = (1.08 - 1.0)/0.05 = 1.60.

As the t-statistic does not exceed the two-sided 95% critical value of 1.96, we do not reject the null; i.e., the population beta may be 1.0. Sample size is not required, it informs the given standard error. We only need to see that the sample is large to realize the t-statistic is approximately normal.

Please note that, if the null hypothesis were "the slope is zero," then the t-statistic is (1.08 - 0)/0.05 = 21.60, and we would reject that null.

该题目计算的t为1.6,置信区间为1±0.05*1.96,然而临界值1.96

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2025年06月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


t算出来是1.6,但是95%的临界值是1.96,由于这个t值太小了,小于1.96所以无法拒绝H0原假设。


假设检验的时候,这个临界值1.96本身就已经是标准正态分布或者t分布的置信区间边界了,直接用t值跟1.96比较就行了。 小于临界值,就是没有落入拒绝域,所以无法拒绝原假设。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!