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Carolyne · 2025年06月12日

如题

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NO.PZ202405210200000503

问题如下:

Which approach is most consistent with Snow's approach to economic forecasting?

选项:

A.Checklist approach B.Economic models approach C.Leading indicator-based approach

解释:

The leading indicator-based approach focuses primarily on identifying turning points.

One of the weaknesses of the econometric models approach is that it rarely forecasts turning points well. Identifying turning points is neither a strength nor a weakness of the checklist approach.

基于领先指标的方法主要侧重于识别经济转折点。
计量经济学模型方法的缺点之一是它很少能很好地预测转折点。而识别转折点对清单方法来说既不是优点也不是缺点。

1、check list approach可以预测turning points吗?

2、文中说adjust allocation across asset class,这个不是说checklist的flexibility吗?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2025年06月12日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


check list approach可以预测turning points吗?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

目前原版书没提到check list approach可以预测turning points。

但提到LEI可以预测turning points。

因此题目中涉及turning points,优先LEI。

我们可以认为,LEI在预测拐点方面,比check list approach更有优势。


文中说adjust allocation across asset class,这个不是说checklist的flexibility吗?

adjust allocation across asset class是指在大类资产中做调配。

checklist的flexibility是指分析方法有灵活性。

这两者并没有太多的关联。

涉及到下面的几条,才是checklist的灵活性。


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2025-02-03 11:13 1 · 回答