NO.PZ202405210200000404
问题如下：
Based on the Taylor rule, if the central bank targets a 5.25% nominal policy rate, what is the mostly likely near-term outcome for the US economy?
选项：
A.Lower inflation and higher real growth B.Stable inflation and stable real growth C.Higher inflation and lower real growth解释：
According to the Taylor rule, the expected nominal policy rate target of 5.25% is too low. If the central bank does not raise rates to the 7.75% implied by the Taylor rule, the economy would likely grow too fast and this could cause a significant tightening in the output gap of the economy. This environment is unsustainable and will likely lead to higher inflation and weaker real growth.
i = rneutral + πe + 0.5(𝑌e – 𝑌trend) + 0.5(πe – πtarget)
Where:
i = target nominal policy rate
rneutral = real policy rate that would be targeted if growth is expected to be at trend and inflation on target
πe, πtarget = the expected and target inflation rates
𝑌e, 𝑌trend = the expected and trend real GDP growth rates
Using the information provided, the target nominal policy rate is
i = 2.50% + 3.5% + 0.5(5.0% – 3.0%) + 0.5(3.5% – 2.0%)
i = 7.75%
根据泰勒规则，5.25% 的预期名义政策利率目标过低。如果中央银行不将利率提高到泰勒规则所暗示的 7.75%，经济很可能增长过快，这可能会导致经济产出缺口显著收紧。这种情况是不可持续的，并且可能会导致更高的通货膨胀和更疲软的实际增长。
泰勒规则公式为：
其中：
- i = 目标名义政策利率
- rneutral = 如果预期增长处于趋势水平且通胀达到目标时所设定的实际政策利率目标
- πe，πtarget = 预期通货膨胀率和目标通货膨胀率
- Ye，Ytrend = 预期实际国内生产总值增长率和趋势实际国内生产总值增长率
利用所提供的信息，计算目标名义政策利率：
i=2.50%+3.5%+0.5×2.0%+0.5×1.5%i=7.75%
Taylor是7.75，如果央行设定为9呢，对通胀和real growth增长是怎样的？
我的理解：紧缩过度，导致lower inflation
lower real growth,因为未达到最佳利率水平。
对吗？
