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wyrw · 2025年06月07日

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NO.PZ202210140200000103

问题如下:

In the current interest rate environment, using a required return on equity estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical ERP defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upward

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downward

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct. The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical ERP, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward-sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upward.

1、为何收益率曲线是倒挂的,短期收益率会高于长期收益率,题干中哪里有写

2、在收益率曲线倒挂前提下,CAPM模型中第一个Rf是高估了,ERP相应低估是吗

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