NO.PZ2023091601000002
问题如下：
An analyst develops the
following probability distribution about the state of the economy and the
market.
Which
of the following statements about this probability distribution is least likely
accurate?
选项：
A.The
probability of a normal market is 0.30
The
probability of having a good economy and a bear market is 0.12
Given
that the economy is good, the chance of a poor economy and a bull market is
0.15
Given
that the economy is poor, the combined probability of a normal or a bull market
is 0.50
解释：
Given that the
economy is good, the probability of a poor economy and a bull market is zero.
The other statements are true. The P(normal market) = (0.60 × 0.30) + (0.40 ×
0.30) = 0.30. P(good economy and bear market) = 0.60 × 0.20 = 0.12. Given that
the economy is poor, the probability of a normal or bull market = 0.30 + 0.20 =
0.50.
Given that the economy is poor, the probability of a normal or bull market 不应该是0吗？
