CME

NO.PZ202001210200000107 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist who velops capitmarket expectations for investment firm thinvests across asset classes anglobmarkets. Wakuluk starteher career when the globmarkets were experiencing significant volatility anpoor returns; a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evinananalyticproceres to mitigate any potentibiases.Wakuluk’s approato economic forecasting utilizes a structurmol in conjunction with a ffusion inx to termine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approahprocesuccessful prections in the past, thus Wakuluk hhigh confinin the prections. Wakuluk also termines whether any austments neeto ma to her initiestimates of the respective aggregate economic growth tren baseon historicrates of growth for Countries X anY (both velopemarkets) anCountry Z (a veloping market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates aust with expecteinflation anare procyclical. Wakuluk reviews the historicshort-term interest rate tren for eacountry, whifurther confirms her prections shown in Exhibit 1.Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y to termine the path of nomininterest rates, the potentieconomic response of Country Y’s economy to this path, anthe timing for when Country Y’s economy mmove into the next business cycle. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 1 Monetary polihbeen persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscpolicies have been persistently tight.Observation 2 Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime.Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 2, whimpawill the polichanges have on the trenrate of growth for Country Y? A.Negative B.Neutr C.Positive C is correct. Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies anshoulhave a positive impaon the trenrate of growth for a business cycle this in slowwn or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in sposable income for the most vulnerable househol, while progressive tregimes imply ththe effective trate on the private sector is pro-cyclic(i.e., rising the economy expan anfalling the economy contracts). 题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C正确。 我理解的是increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime 是宽松的财政政策，增加了reinterest rate，borrow cost增加。而Y是contraction阶段，一个高的borrowing cost不利于经济发展。所以选请问我的理解哪里出问题了？谢谢

NO.PZ202001210200000107 问题如下 Baseon Observation 2, whimpawill the polichanges have on the trenrate of growth for Country Y? A.Negative B.Neutr C.Positive C is correct. Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies anshoulhave a positive impaon the trenrate of growth for a business cycle this in slowwn or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in sposable income for the most vulnerable househol, while progressive tregimes imply ththe effective trate on the private sector is pro-cyclic(i.e., rising the economy expan anfalling the economy contracts). 题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C正确。 1.引入更累进的税收制度是促进经济增长的政府政策，为什么会促进增长？2.累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的，为什么是顺周期的

NO.PZ202001210200000107问题如下Baseon Observation 2, whimpawill the polichanges have on the trenrate of growth for Country Y? A.Negative B.Neutr C.Positive C is correct. Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies anshoulhave a positive impaon the trenrate of growth for a business cycle this in slowwn or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in sposable income for the most vulnerable househol, while progressive tregimes imply ththe effective trate on the private sector is pro-cyclic(i.e., rising the economy expan anfalling the economy contracts). 题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C正确。 老师哪里讲了这个知识点？

NO.PZ202001210200000107 问题如下 Baseon Observation 2, whimpawill the polichanges have on the trenrate of growth for Country Y? A.Negative B.Neutr C.Positive C is correct. Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies anshoulhave a positive impaon the trenrate of growth for a business cycle this in slowwn or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in sposable income for the most vulnerable househol, while progressive tregimes imply ththe effective trate on the private sector is pro-cyclic(i.e., rising the economy expan anfalling the economy contracts). 题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C正确。 现在经济衰退，转移支付和累进税制可以调节经济衰退的周期。我理解是你逆周期调节。但看答案意思是从积极影响/消极影响的角度来选？

NeutrPositive C is correct. Country Y is expecteto significantly increase transfer payments anintroa more progressive tregime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies anshoulhave a positive impaon the trenrate of growth for a business cycle this in slowwn or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in sposable income for the most vulnerable househol, while progressive tregimes imply ththe effective trate on the private sector is pro-cyclic(i.e., rising the economy expan anfalling the economy contracts). 题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C正确。 1、为什么更累进的税收会促进经济增长呢？个人缴纳税越多不是手头上钱越少吗？2、答案解析的意思是说累进税制是顺周期，周期上行才会加大累进。那也就是这个题干的意思是问，现在市场已经怎么样了，发生了什么，才导致政府实行更累进税制？发生了经济周期变好上行，所以才更加累进税率。这么理解吗？