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Mia Li · 2025年06月04日

关于shortfall risk

NO.PZ2019100901000014

问题如下:

Dianna Mark is the chief financial officer of Antiliaro, a relatively mature textile production company headquartered in Italy. All of its revenues come from Europe, but the company is losing sales to its Asian competitors. Earnings have been steady but not growing, and the balance sheet has taken on more debt in the past few years in order to maintain liquidity. Mark reviews the following facts concerning the company’s defined benefit (DB) pension plan:

●The DB plan currently has €1 billion in assets and is underfunded by €100 million in relation to the projected benefit obligation (PBO) because of investment losses.

●The company to date has made regular contributions.

●The average employee age is 50 years, and the company has many retirees owing to its longevity.

●The duration of the plan’s liabilities (which are all Europe based) is 10 years.

●The discount rate applied to these liabilities is 6%.

●There is a high correlation between the operating results of Antiliaro and pension asset returns.

Determine whether the risk tolerance of the DB plan is below average or above average. Justify your response with two reasons.

解释:

the DB plan is below average



老师关于答案里第三点,目前DB属于underfunded status,且根据题目中描述,公司目前财务状况不好,推断出会影响contribution的能力,这个情况下fund不是应该投的比较high risk,未来才能meet liabilities?就这个点来看,risk tolerance 是不是high?谢谢

1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2025年06月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你的疑问在于,为何资金不足且公司财务状况不佳时,风险容忍度不是更高。实际上,虽然理论上可能想通过高风险投资弥补缺口,但现实中 DB 计划处于资金缺口状态且因投资损失已加剧亏空,公司又面临盈利停滞、债务增加的财务困境,无法在投资亏损时追加资金填补缺口。一旦高风险投资失败,缺口会进一步扩大,而公司财务状况限制了其注资能力,这种情况下DB计划根本无法承受高风险带来的损失。此外,计划负债久期长达 10 年且需稳定应对退休福利支付,高风险资产波动大,难以匹配负债特性,加上公司经营与养老金资产回报高相关,公司业绩差时投资收益也可能下滑,高风险投资会加剧双重风险,因此风险容忍度只能低于平均水平,而非更高。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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